Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.01 20:24
EURUSD heads towards 200 hour MA (based on forexlive article)
The EURUSD could not keep a lid on the pair at the 1.0956 level.
Sellers relented and buyers took more control. The price has now moved
above the European highs and looks towards the high for the day and the
200 hour MA as the next targets (at 1.09876-89). The high from last
week at 1.1008 and the 38.2% of the move down from the May 22 high comes
in at 1.10129 become the next targets.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.02 06:08
EUR/USD Below 1.0950 on Greece Concerns (based on marketpulse article)
Mounting concern about Greece’s future is taking a toll on the euro —
and yes, the dollar is benefiting from that — but an aggressive rally
in the greenback is unlikely while U.S. data remains weak, analysts
The euro skidded 0.8 percent to around $1.0892 on Monday after Greece
missed a self-imposed Sunday deadline to reach a deal with its lenders
to unlock crucial aid. An agreement is seen as key for Greece avoiding a
debt default and dodging a potential exit from the euro zone.
“We have moved from a situation where Greece really wasn’t an issue
and people were not pricing it in to now, where it is becoming an issue
for the euro,” Geoffrey Yu, a currency strategist at UBS, told CNBC. “I
wouldn’t say the euro is going to correct massively yet, because even
under a negative scenario where Greece missus a (debt) payment, Greece
is largely quarantined and the risks are not systemic.”
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.02 09:03
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
"The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing
its policy rate later this year, but some other major
central banks are continuing to ease policy. Hence,
global financial conditions remain very accommodative.
Despite some increases in bond yields recently, long-term
borrowing rates for sovereigns and creditworthy private
borrowers remain remarkably low."
"Having eased monetary policy last month, the Board
today judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was
appropriate at this meeting. Information on economic
and financial conditions to be received over the period
ahead will inform the Board's assessment of the
outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy
will most effectively foster sustainable growth and
inflation consistent with the target."
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
AUDUSD, M5, 2015.06.02
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
AUDUSD M5: 84 pips price movement by AUD - Cash Rate news event
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.02 18:46
Forex technical analysis: EURUSD rises on Greek deal. We have been down this road before (adapted from forexlive article)
"EURUSD has rallied today on the headlines and is currently testing the
100 day MA which comes in at the 1.1082 level. The pair has moved
through the highs from March at 1.1052. This is now a level to get back
below if the bears are to take back control. The swing low from Jan
comes in at 1.1097. This area between 1.1082 and 1.1097 should be a
tough resistance area."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.04 07:00
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Aiming Above 1.13 Figure (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro rebounded against the US Dollar as expected having produced a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1320 exposes the 61.8% level at 1.1439. Alternatively, a turn below the 38.2% Fib at 1.1202 opens the door for a challenge of the 1.1005-55 area (23.6% expansion, horizontal pivot).
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.04 07:21
Australia April Trade Deficit A$3.888 Billion Trade (adapted from rttnews article)
Australia posted a merchandise trade deficit of A$3.888 billion in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - or down 216 percent from the previous month.
AUDUSD M5: 63 pips price movement by AUD - Trade Balance news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.05 05:24
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rebound Capped Above 1.13 (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro paused to digest gains having reversed upward as expected against the US Dollar
following two days of aggressive gains. Near-term resistance is at
1.1320, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily
closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 1.1439. Alternatively, a
reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 1.1202 clears the way for a test of the
1.1005-55 area (23.6% expansion, horizontal pivot).
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.05 14:37
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Mining employment continued to decline."
USDJPY, M5, 2015.06.05
Alpari Limited, MetaTrader 4
USDJPY M5: 102 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.08 15:51
Obama and better German data help the common currency (based on forexlive article)
"The EURUSD has pushed higher in early NY trading. The pairs bullishness
is being attributed today to reports from a French official that Pres.
Obama told delegates that the strong dollar posed a problem. The White
House denied the report. Better German industrial production and a
higher trade surplus may have also contributed to better tone in the
European's common currency. The stronger US employment report has been
taken off the front pages for the time being."
"So the bulls are in control. The 100 hour MA is being pushed. The 50%
looms above. Look for sellers on a test, but sellers will have to show
that they can take back control in this EURUSD bullish day. That means
moving back below those levels which were resistance. The 100 hour MA,
the 38.2% retracement at 1.11749 will be the first levels to go below
and stay below if the sellers are to take back control."
Please enable the necessary setting in your browser, otherwise you will not be able to log in.