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Greece And EUR/USD: Solving Problems Nobody Knew About Is Better Than Not Having Problems (based on seekingalpha article)
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rebound Capped Above 1.13 (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro paused to digest gains having reversed upward as expected against the US Dollar following two days of aggressive gains. Near-term resistance is at 1.1320, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 1.1439. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 1.1202 clears the way for a test of the 1.1005-55 area (23.6% expansion, horizontal pivot).
The next great bull market: Gold $25,000 (based on marketwatch article)
"Suppose someone approached you in the year 2000, when the price of gold was around $250 an ounce and suggested that it would be worth almost eight times its current value within the next decade. I am sure most people would have thought that person to be less than credible making such an outrageous market call. Think about it. An asset being expected to multiply by eightfold within a decade? But as we all know now, gold went from $250 an ounce to just over $1,900 an ounce in just that amount of time."
"For those who still question how well Elliott Wave can really provide long-term accurate predictions of market direction relative to all other methodologies, allow me to present you with the following prediction made by Ralph Nelson Elliott in August of 1941:
“[1941] should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012.”
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Mining employment continued to decline."
Forex Weekly Outlook June 8-12 (based on forexcrunch article)
The US dollar had the final word in a turbulent and volatile week. G7 Meetings, a rate decision in New Zealand, employment data in Australia, as well as US retail sales, PPI and Consumer Sentiment stand out. These are the highlight events for this week. Join us as we explore the main market movers.
US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised with an excellent release showing a job gain of 280,000 in May. This was accompanied by a rise in wages widening participation and sent the dollar rallying. Things were more complicated beforehand for the greenback. The euro enjoyed the lack of worries from the ECB about bond volatility and the lack of rush to front load QE. Yet most of the EUR/USD surge was eventually erased. The pound suffered from a poor PMI while the Aussie only partially enjoyed the strong GDP report. What’s next for currencies? We can certainly agree with Draghi about getting used to volatility. Let’s start:
AUDIO - Always Something to Trade with Michael Young
Former CME floor trader, Michael Young joins Merlin to discuss how he is trading these sideways markets and finding great trading opportunities.
Mr. Young takes a look at Natural Gas, and walks listeners through how he is trading it, and what his strategies are going forward. The duo stress the importance of knowing the instruments you are trading, and having a plan at all times!!
Why EURUSD May Not Reach Parity Any Time Soon (based on actionforex article)
Technical Developments to Watch:
EURUSD had a rollercoaster ride of a week, spiking nearly 500 pips trough-to-peak before giving back over 300 pips in the wake of Friday's strong NFP report. Meanwhile, both the MACD and Slow Stochastics are now in neutral territory, signaling balanced, two-way trade. Traders are clearly trying to sort out last week's volatile price action, but from a longer-term perspective, the one-year bearish trend line perfectly capped last week's rally, so we're inclined to give the bears the benefit of the doubt as long as EURUSD holds below 1.1380.
EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, June 8 -12, 2015 -Forecast (adapted from fxempire article)
The dollar got a lift on Friday as official data showed US businesses accelerated hiring and raised wages at a faster pace last month in a fresh sign the country’s economy is rebounding from the winter stall.
In a report that gives the Federal Reserve more reason to move toward an interest rate hike in the coming months, the Labor Department said Friday that the economy pumped out 280,000 jobs in May, far more than expected and well above the past year’s pace of 251,000 a month.
Meanwhile, the euro was down over 1 percent against the U.S. dollar as Greek debt crisis intensified.
Athens failed to repay a 300 million euros (333 million U.S. dollars) loan installment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Friday. On Thursday, the central bank of Greece formally requested the IMF to “bundle” its four payments due to the IMF this month amounting to approximately 1.5 billion euros (about 1.67 billion U. S. dollars) into one.
USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD: Outlooks For The Coming Week - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
"EUR: Draghi Gives EUR Legs. Bearish.
The ECB did not push back against higher yields in the Euro Area, which could offer some near term support to EUR on the crosses. Should risk appetite fade, this could bolster EUR even further, as many European equity holdings are currency hedged, and therefore short EUR positions would need to be bought back as equities were sold. Once this positioning becomes clearer, we would look to sell EUR, as our medium term view on EUR has not changed."
EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 8, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
The EUR/USD pair initially rallied during the course of the week, but then pullback in order to form a massive shooting star like candle. However, we broke the top of the hammer from the previous week, and did stay above there. Because of that we feel that there is bullish pressure underneath, and that this market will continue to go higher. We have no interest in selling from a longer-term perspective, but recognize that short-term buyers will probably continue to come back into this market again and again. If we can get above the 1.15 level, we are long-term buyers.