Press review - page 324

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113503
Sergey Golubev  

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB Group) - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and Gold (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: Bearish end to last week. The sought bid areas(1.1175 & 1.1113) were both passed after the stronger than expected NFP. The decline also made the pair end the week below the weekly mid body point (of the falling benchmark candle a fortnight ago) 1.1233 hence keeping weekly downside pressure intact (a lower high this week and the correction should be completed). In the hourly graph a bearish triangle has been created since the low point Friday afternoon so more selling should be in the pipeline.


EUR/GBP: Lower within the triangle. After having stalled and turned lower at the 78.6% Fibo point the pair on Friday accelerated the decline (that primarily should be targeting 0.7127 (78.6% of the recent advance). Below 0.7253 more supply is expected to hit the market.


Spot Gold: Targeting 1,153 next. Buyers responded to weekly losses before the closing bell rang on Fri, but with a medium-term "B-wave low" taken out the downside potential just increased and a short-term "Equality point" at 1.153 acts as primary attraction/resistance to explore. Lower targets at 1,143/38 also exist at least as long as not moving back over 1,204.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113503
Sergey Golubev  

Obama and better German data help the common currency (based on forexlive article)

"The EURUSD has pushed higher in early NY trading.  The pairs bullishness is being attributed today to reports from a French official that Pres. Obama told delegates that the strong dollar posed a problem. The White House denied the report. Better German industrial production and a higher trade surplus may have also contributed to better tone in the European's common currency.  The stronger US employment report has been taken off the front pages for the time being." 


"So the bulls are in control. The 100 hour MA is being pushed. The 50% looms above. Look for sellers on a test, but sellers will have to show that they can take back control in this EURUSD bullish day.   That means moving back below those levels which were resistance. The 100 hour MA, the 38.2% retracement at 1.11749 will be the first levels to go below and stay below if the sellers are to take back control."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113503
Sergey Golubev  

Forex technical analysis: A quick look at some of the major currency pairs (based on forexlive article)

EURUSD

The EURUSD traded at 1.1220 right before the employment report on Friday. It is back at that level and in fact now breaking to new day highs.  The NY session has seen the price extend above the the London morning high at 1.1177. The price low after breaking above that level briefly traded at 1.1175.  The buyers remain in control with potential up to 1.1253 on more of a squeeze.



GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has been up and down (or down and up) in trading today. The last move was down and that move tested the 50% midpoint and the 200 bar MA on the at the 1.5262.   On Friday, the pair successfully held the 50% of the move up from the April low to the May high at the 1.5191 level. That, along with the 50% and the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart has the buyers with the edge.



USDJPY
The USDJPY is trading below the 125.00 level and looks toward the 50% of the move up from last weeks lows at the 124.80



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113503
Sergey Golubev  

China Inflation Slows To 1.2% In May (based on rttnews article)

Consumer prices in China were up 1.2 percent on year in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That was slightly below expectations for 1.3 percent, and it was down from 1.5 percent in April.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113503
Sergey Golubev  

Société Générale - EUR/USD: Market's Amnesia (based on efxnews article)

"With the breakdown of Euro Area GDP data and US Jolts figures the ‘highlight’ of today’s economic news, the FX market will go on watching bonds. There is no catalyst for EUR/USD to fall back unless amnesia fades and we remember the implications of the US data. That seems unlikely, whereas stronger German labour cost data is yet another sign of stirrings in the heart of the Euro area."


"The technical folks tell me that it takes a close above 1.1315 to signal a test of the March 1.1470- high. The Bund/Treasury spread tells me there’s a fair chance of that happening."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113503
Sergey Golubev  

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD moves back toward unchanged on the day (based on forexlive article)


"The EURUSD has moved back toward unchanged on the day at 1.1290. The corrective high just peaked the the 1.1288 level.   The area was near the swing high on June 3. On Unemployment Friday, early sellers came in against the level. Today, in the Asian and London morning session, the pair had some peaks near the level."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113503
Sergey Golubev  

Can anything break the impenetrable barrier in EURUSD? (based on forexlive article)

There's a rather large obstacle to the upside in EURUSD and it's becoming a very tough nut to crack

The area between 1.1380 and 1.1400 is proving to be a very strong level. The level has played a big part in the moves all year and not even a 200 pip fall in USDJPY could help the euro crack it


While the 1.1380 level is strong I would be cautious about trading it if we moved back up there quite quickly. If you do look to trade it then perhaps think about a tight stop somewhere just above 1.1400. If it does break then watch for a re-test to hold as a sign to look at a long there

Closer to the current price, the minor trendline was broken briefly but we're back below, and we could see resistance coming in against it again. That's at 1.1355 and the area around 1.1330/40 is closer resistance right now. We're also seeing resistance form at 1.1310

The euro is starting to turn into the dollar whereby the shift in sentiment is making the downside a tougher trade. With that in mind, and the current views on the yen and dollar, I'm going to be looking for any decent dips towards 1.11 to think about loading up some longs. I'm also going to think about playing a long if 1.1380 breaks and holds

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113503
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD orders (based on forexlive article)

  •  Sellers 1.1340/50, stops above 50 then sellers 1.1380/00, some stops mingled in
  • Buyers ... some around 1.1275 but better size 1.1230 then 00. Stop losses under 1.1250
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113503
Sergey Golubev  
2015-06-11 02:30 GMT (or 04:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Employment Change]
  • past data is -13.7K
  • forecast data is 12.1K
  • actual data is 42.0K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

==========

  • Employment increased 42,000 to 11,759,600. Full-time employment increased 14,700 to 8,128,600 and part-time employment increased 27,300 to 3,630,900.
  • Unemployment decreased 22,000 to 745,200. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 23,500 to 514,500 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 1,500 to 230,800.
  • Unemployment rate decreased 0.2 pts to 6.0%, based on unrounded estimates.
  • Participation rate remained steady at 64.7% from a revised April 2015 estimate.
  • Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 2.2 million hours (0.1%) to 1,631.8 million hours from a revised April 2015 estimate.

==========

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113503
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: USD Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of a stronger recovery may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more hawkish tone at the June 17 interest rate decision, and expectations for higher borrowing-costs may spur a resumption of the long-term bullish USD trend as the central bank moves away from its easing cycle.

Nevertheless, retail sales may continue to disappoint amid easing discounts paired with waning consumer confidence, and another weaker-than-expected report may drag on the dollar as it raises the for a further delay in the Fed’s normalization cycle.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Rebounds 1.2% or Greater

  • Need red, five-minute candle following a positive print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: Household Spending Continues to Disappoint
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily



  • EUR/USD appears to be stuck in a long-term wedge/triangle formation following the failed attempt to test the February high back in May; remains at risk for range-bound prices as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (61.8% expansion) to 1.1532 (February high)
  • Interim Support: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.1000 (50% retracement)

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2015.06.11

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

EURUSD M5: 87 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event

EURUSD, M5, 2015.06.11, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCAD, M5, 2015.06.11

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

USDCAD M5: 76 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event

USDCAD, M5, 2015.06.11, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo