Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB Group) - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and Gold (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: Bearish end to last week. The sought bid
areas(1.1175 & 1.1113) were both passed after the stronger than
expected NFP. The decline also made the pair end the week below the
weekly mid body point (of the falling benchmark candle a fortnight ago)
1.1233 hence keeping weekly downside pressure intact (a lower high this
week and the correction should be completed). In the hourly graph a
bearish triangle has been created since the low point Friday afternoon
so more selling should be in the pipeline.
EUR/GBP: Lower within the triangle. After
having stalled and turned lower at the 78.6% Fibo point the pair on
Friday accelerated the decline (that primarily should be targeting
0.7127 (78.6% of the recent advance). Below 0.7253 more supply is
expected to hit the market.
Spot Gold: Targeting 1,153 next. Buyers responded to
weekly losses before the closing bell rang on Fri, but with a
medium-term "B-wave low" taken out the downside potential just increased
and a short-term "Equality point" at 1.153 acts as primary
attraction/resistance to explore. Lower targets at 1,143/38 also exist
at least as long as not moving back over 1,204.
Obama and better German data help the common currency (based on forexlive article)
"The EURUSD has pushed higher in early NY trading. The pairs bullishness
is being attributed today to reports from a French official that Pres.
Obama told delegates that the strong dollar posed a problem. The White
House denied the report. Better German industrial production and a
higher trade surplus may have also contributed to better tone in the
European's common currency. The stronger US employment report has been
taken off the front pages for the time being."
"So the bulls are in control. The 100 hour MA is being pushed. The 50%
looms above. Look for sellers on a test, but sellers will have to show
that they can take back control in this EURUSD bullish day. That means
moving back below those levels which were resistance. The 100 hour MA,
the 38.2% retracement at 1.11749 will be the first levels to go below
and stay below if the sellers are to take back control."
Forex technical analysis: A quick look at some of the major currency pairs (based on forexlive article)
The EURUSD traded at 1.1220 right before the
employment report on Friday. It is back at that level and in fact now
breaking to new day highs. The NY session has seen the price extend
above the the London morning high at 1.1177. The price low after
breaking above that level briefly traded at 1.1175. The buyers remain
in control with potential up to 1.1253 on more of a squeeze.
China Inflation Slows To 1.2% In May (based on rttnews article)
Consumer prices in China were up 1.2 percent on year in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.
That was slightly below expectations for 1.3 percent, and it was down from 1.5 percent in April.
Société Générale - EUR/USD: Market's Amnesia (based on efxnews article)
"With the breakdown of Euro Area GDP data and US Jolts figures
the ‘highlight’ of today’s economic news, the FX market will go on
watching bonds. There is no catalyst for EUR/USD to fall back unless
amnesia fades and we remember the implications of the US data. That seems unlikely, whereas stronger German labour cost data is yet another sign of stirrings in the heart of the Euro area."
"The technical folks tell me that it takes a close above 1.1315
to signal a test of the March 1.1470- high. The Bund/Treasury spread
tells me there’s a fair chance of that happening."
Forex technical analysis: EURUSD moves back toward unchanged on the day (based on forexlive article)
"The EURUSD has moved back toward unchanged on the day at 1.1290.
The corrective high just peaked the the 1.1288 level. The area was
near the swing high on June 3. On Unemployment Friday, early sellers
came in against the level. Today, in the Asian and London morning
session, the pair had some peaks near the level."
Can anything break the impenetrable barrier in EURUSD? (based on forexlive article)
area between 1.1380 and 1.1400 is proving to be a very strong level.
The level has played a big part in the moves all year and not even a 200
pip fall in USDJPY could help the euro crack it
While the 1.1380 level is strong I would be cautious about trading
it if we moved back up there quite quickly. If you do look to trade it
then perhaps think about a tight stop somewhere just above 1.1400. If it
does break then watch for a re-test to hold as a sign to look at a long
Closer to the current price, the minor trendline was broken
briefly but we're back below, and we could see resistance coming in
against it again. That's at 1.1355 and the area around 1.1330/40 is
closer resistance right now. We're also seeing resistance form at
The euro is starting to turn into the dollar whereby the shift in
sentiment is making the downside a tougher trade. With that in mind, and
the current views on the yen and dollar, I'm going to be looking for
any decent dips towards 1.11 to think about loading up some longs. I'm
also going to think about playing a long if 1.1380 breaks and holds
EUR/USD orders (based on forexlive article)
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Trading the News: USD Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)
Why Is This Event Important:
Signs of a stronger recovery may encourage the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more hawkish tone at the June 17 interest
rate decision, and expectations for higher borrowing-costs may spur a
resumption of the long-term bullish USD trend as the central bank moves
away from its easing cycle.
Nevertheless, retail sales may continue to disappoint amid easing
discounts paired with waning consumer confidence, and another
weaker-than-expected report may drag on the dollar as it raises the for a
further delay in the Fed’s normalization cycle.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Rebounds 1.2% or Greater
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.06.11
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 87 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
USDCAD, M5, 2015.06.11
USDCAD M5: 76 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event