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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.10 09:24
BNP Paribas - How To Trade Greece's End-Game (based on efxnews article)
1. Sell EUR relief rallies against USD, GBP:
"This scenario produces a relief rally across most asset classes.
European equities would rally and peripheral spreads would narrow. It is
unlikely the EUR would appreciate broadly as it is difficult to argue
that the single currency is trading at a discount to valuation. Outcome 1 would provide a catalyst for the re-establishment of EUR-funded carry trades," BNPP advises.
"Accordingly, the EUR should depreciate, especially against higher yielders such as the USD and GBP. A
clear exception would be EURCHF, which is likely to rally in this
scenario. The CHF has served as a safe-haven – as indicated by the net
long exposure of +24.," BNPP projects.
2. Sell EUR/JPY:
"This is the scenario the market fears...We view that EURJPY
shorts would perform even better in this scenario, as an anticipated
delay to Fed tightening would weaken the USD," BNPP advises.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.10 14:26
Morgan Stanley evaluated some long-term/short term scenarios concerning EUR in case of Greece (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.12 17:05
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and GOLD (based on dailyfx article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.13 06:58
EUR/USD: Make Or Break; Levels & Targets - Citi (based on efxnews article)
"The failure to set a new high on 18 June (1.1439 versus 1.1468 high on 15 May) raised the first question mark. Now, a close below 1.0819, if seen, would create a lower low and firmly suggest that the downtrend has resumed," Citi adds.
In that eventuality, Citi thinks that the present pattern could then be identified as either:
"1- A head and shoulders formation with a neckline at 1.1124 and a downside target of at least 1.0370 (new trend lows).
2- An effective double top with a neckline at 1.0819 and a minimum target of 1.0185-1.0200," Citi clarifies.
"While longer term (possibly summer 2016) we retain a target
of .8800-.9000 we would envisage seeing the target rangers above in the
weeks ahead if this break of 1.0819 takes place," Citi projects.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.13 19:25
Goldman Sachs for EUR/USD: 1.04 at year-end? EUR/USD will fall 'a lot further' (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.14 04:21
Tech Setups For AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD - Barclays (based on efxnews article)
AUD/USD: 'We are bearish and would use any upticks as
opportunity to sell against resistance in the 0.7600 area. Our downside
targets are towards support near 0.7335 and then the 0.7100 area.'
NZD/USD: 'Resistance in the 0.6820 area (21-dma) is
expected to provide selling interest and helps keep us bearish in the
short term. A move below 0.6620 would confirm downside towards our
targets near the 0.6560 multi-month range lows.'
USD/CAD: 'No change. A move above resistance near
1.2780 would confirm upside towards the 1.2835 year-to-date highs. A
break above 1.2835 would signal higher towards our greater targets near
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.14 06:42
Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (based on dailyfx article)
A further slowdown in the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may generate a
near-term pullback in GBP/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Bank
of England (BoE) to retain its current policy throughout 2015.
Why Is This Event Important:
However, the stickiness in the core rate of inflation may limit the
downside risk for the sterling as BoE Governor Mark Carney anticipates
faster price growth in the second-half of the year, and the central bank
head may continue to prepare U.K. households and businesses for higher
borrowing-costs should the fundamental developments show signs of a
Nevertheless, improved confidence along with resilience in household
consumption may prompt a strong inflation print, and a positive
development may pave the way for a near-term advance in GBP/USD as the
BoE remains on course to normalize monetary policy.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Headline & Core CPI Highlight Slower Price Growth
GBPUSD M5: 68 pips price movement by GBP - CPI news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.14 08:24
Royal Bank of Scotland - 'EUR/USD goes lower multi-month but in a choppy range over the next few weeks' (based on efxnews article)
RBS is thinking that EURUSD will be in more ranging condition for the next few weeks:
If we look at Ichimoku chart D1 timeframe so we can see the following:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.15 07:40
Fundamental Forecast - 'What Will Draghi Say?' - Citibank (based on efxnews article)
Citibank provided some forecasts concerning fundamental news events
on Thursday related to ECB meeting and potential EUR reaction. Citi
described it on 4 points to be mention:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.15 12:18
Chair Yellen will present the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday so this is the expectation of 10 major banks: