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Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB Group) - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and Gold (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: Bearish end to last week. The sought bid areas(1.1175 & 1.1113) were both passed after the stronger than expected NFP. The decline also made the pair end the week below the weekly mid body point (of the falling benchmark candle a fortnight ago) 1.1233 hence keeping weekly downside pressure intact (a lower high this week and the correction should be completed). In the hourly graph a bearish triangle has been created since the low point Friday afternoon so more selling should be in the pipeline.
EUR/GBP: Lower within the triangle. After having stalled and turned lower at the 78.6% Fibo point the pair on Friday accelerated the decline (that primarily should be targeting 0.7127 (78.6% of the recent advance). Below 0.7253 more supply is expected to hit the market.
Spot Gold: Targeting 1,153 next. Buyers responded to weekly losses before the closing bell rang on Fri, but with a medium-term "B-wave low" taken out the downside potential just increased and a short-term "Equality point" at 1.153 acts as primary attraction/resistance to explore. Lower targets at 1,143/38 also exist at least as long as not moving back over 1,204.
Obama and better German data help the common currency (based on forexlive article)
"The EURUSD has pushed higher in early NY trading. The pairs bullishness is being attributed today to reports from a French official that Pres. Obama told delegates that the strong dollar posed a problem. The White House denied the report. Better German industrial production and a higher trade surplus may have also contributed to better tone in the European's common currency. The stronger US employment report has been taken off the front pages for the time being."
"So the bulls are in control. The 100 hour MA is being pushed. The 50% looms above. Look for sellers on a test, but sellers will have to show that they can take back control in this EURUSD bullish day. That means moving back below those levels which were resistance. The 100 hour MA, the 38.2% retracement at 1.11749 will be the first levels to go below and stay below if the sellers are to take back control."
Forex technical analysis: A quick look at some of the major currency pairs (based on forexlive article)
EURUSDThe EURUSD traded at 1.1220 right before the employment report on Friday. It is back at that level and in fact now breaking to new day highs. The NY session has seen the price extend above the the London morning high at 1.1177. The price low after breaking above that level briefly traded at 1.1175. The buyers remain in control with potential up to 1.1253 on more of a squeeze.
GBPUSDThe GBPUSD has been up and down (or down and up) in trading today. The last move was down and that move tested the 50% midpoint and the 200 bar MA on the at the 1.5262. On Friday, the pair successfully held the 50% of the move up from the April low to the May high at the 1.5191 level. That, along with the 50% and the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart has the buyers with the edge.
USDJPYThe USDJPY is trading below the 125.00 level and looks toward the 50% of the move up from last weeks lows at the 124.80
China Inflation Slows To 1.2% In May (based on rttnews article)
Consumer prices in China were up 1.2 percent on year in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.
That was slightly below expectations for 1.3 percent, and it was down from 1.5 percent in April.
Société Générale - EUR/USD: Market's Amnesia (based on efxnews article)
"With the breakdown of Euro Area GDP data and US Jolts figures the ‘highlight’ of today’s economic news, the FX market will go on watching bonds. There is no catalyst for EUR/USD to fall back unless amnesia fades and we remember the implications of the US data. That seems unlikely, whereas stronger German labour cost data is yet another sign of stirrings in the heart of the Euro area."
"The technical folks tell me that it takes a close above 1.1315 to signal a test of the March 1.1470- high. The Bund/Treasury spread tells me there’s a fair chance of that happening."
Forex technical analysis: EURUSD moves back toward unchanged on the day (based on forexlive article)
"The EURUSD has moved back toward unchanged on the day at 1.1290. The corrective high just peaked the the 1.1288 level. The area was near the swing high on June 3. On Unemployment Friday, early sellers came in against the level. Today, in the Asian and London morning session, the pair had some peaks near the level."
Can anything break the impenetrable barrier in EURUSD? (based on forexlive article)
There's a rather large obstacle to the upside in EURUSD and it's becoming a very tough nut to crackThe area between 1.1380 and 1.1400 is proving to be a very strong level. The level has played a big part in the moves all year and not even a 200 pip fall in USDJPY could help the euro crack it
While the 1.1380 level is strong I would be cautious about trading it if we moved back up there quite quickly. If you do look to trade it then perhaps think about a tight stop somewhere just above 1.1400. If it does break then watch for a re-test to hold as a sign to look at a long there
Closer to the current price, the minor trendline was broken briefly but we're back below, and we could see resistance coming in against it again. That's at 1.1355 and the area around 1.1330/40 is closer resistance right now. We're also seeing resistance form at 1.1310
The euro is starting to turn into the dollar whereby the shift in sentiment is making the downside a tougher trade. With that in mind, and the current views on the yen and dollar, I'm going to be looking for any decent dips towards 1.11 to think about loading up some longs. I'm also going to think about playing a long if 1.1380 breaks and holds
EUR/USD orders (based on forexlive article)
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
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Trading the News: USD Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Signs of a stronger recovery may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more hawkish tone at the June 17 interest rate decision, and expectations for higher borrowing-costs may spur a resumption of the long-term bullish USD trend as the central bank moves away from its easing cycle.
Nevertheless, retail sales may continue to disappoint amid easing discounts paired with waning consumer confidence, and another weaker-than-expected report may drag on the dollar as it raises the for a further delay in the Fed’s normalization cycle.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Rebounds 1.2% or Greater
- Need red, five-minute candle following a positive print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
- If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: Household Spending Continues to Disappoint- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEURUSD Daily
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.06.11
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 87 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
USDCAD, M5, 2015.06.11
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
USDCAD M5: 76 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event