Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.16 07:56
Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (based on dailyfx article)
An uptick in the headline & core U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may
spur fresh monthly highs in GBP/USD as it raises the Bank of England’s
(BoE) scope to remove the record-low interest rate sooner rather than
Why Is This Event Important:
BoE Governor Mark Carney may sound increasingly hawkish over the coming
months as the central bank head anticipates stronger price growth in
the second-half of 2015, and we may see a growing number of Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) officials prepare U.K. households &
businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the economy gets on a firmer
However, waning confidence paired with falling input costs may continue
to drag on price growth, and a dismal CPI print may undermine the
near-term breakout in GBP/USD as market participants push back bets for a
BoE rate hike.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Headline & Core Inflation Upticks in May
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.06.16
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
GBPUSD M5: 68 pips price movement by GBP - CPI news event
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.17 07:11
UBS for EUR: 'Greece Closer To The Brink' (based on efxnews article)
Should the Greek government and its international partners fail
to reach an agreement in the emergency meetings scheduled for the
coming days, a further escalation in the crisis would seem likely, argues UBS.
"This could well include changes to the ECB's provision of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) and capital controls, which
would likely destabilise sentiment and put a heavy burden on the Greek
economy, the banking system, and government finances – while not
necessarily prompting the Syriza government to agree to Troika demands,"
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.17 11:42
Bank of England Officials Unanimous in Keeping Rates on Hold (based on abcnews article)
Minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee
meeting ending June 3 showed policymakers were mindful that "headwinds
to growth" had begun to ease. The minutes show that over time, the
interest rate to "keep the economy operating at normal levels of
capacity," was likely to rise from the record low of 0.5 percent.
The Office of National Statistics also reported Wednesday that Britain's
unemployment rate for the three months ending in April was 5.5 percent,
down from 5.7 percent for the months to January.
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.06.17
GBPUSD M5: 79 pips price movement by GBP - Bank of England Minutes
How to Start with Metatrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.17 15:42
Just good new article: Identifying Trade Setups by Support, Resistance and Price Action
This article covers a trading methodology
that can be used in any Forex, stock, or commodity market, as well as
MQL4 code examples that can be used in an Expert Advisor based on this
Price action and the determination of
support and resistance levels are the key components of the system.
Market entry is entirely based on those two components. Reference price
levels will be explained along with effective ways of choosing them. The
MQL4 examples include parameters for minimizing risk. This is done by
keeping market exit references and stops relatively close to the entry
There is an additional benefit of
allowing higher volume trades, regardless of account size. Lastly,
options for determining profit targets are discussed, accompanied by
MQL4 code that enables profitable market exit during a variety of
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.17 19:42
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the
Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
"The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting
principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of
rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by
keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable
levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions."
"When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy
accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its
longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The
Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and
inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may,
for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below
levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."
GBPUSD M5: 120 pips price range movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.18 10:16
BNP Paribas - 'What USD Bulls Need Post-FOMC?' (based on efxnews article)
The Fed’s June statement and press conference failed to provide a catalyst for renewed USD gains and the currency has weakened in the aftermath of the meeting, notes BNP Paribas.
"Market participants seemed to focus on the shift lower in the Fed’s
projection for the Fed funds rate, with the average “dot” for end 2015
falling to 57bp from 77bp. In her press conference, Chair Yellen noted
that the conditions for justifying policy tightening were not yet in
place and that, once tightening began, the pace of hikes would be very
gradual," BNPP adds.
"However, we would emphasize that, according to the
projections, a majority of FOMC members continue to anticipate at least
two rate hikes before the end of 2015," BNPP argues.
"Moreover, the message from the Fed is clearly one of data
dependency—if data continues to improve over the summer, markets will be
forced to bring forward pricing for Fed hikes closer to our September
forecast for lift-off," BNPP projects.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.18 12:32
Trading tNews Events: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)
However, subdued input costs paired with the persistent slack in the
real economy may continue to drag on price growth, and a dismal CPI
print may generate a further near-term advance in EUR/USD as market
participants push back for the Fed liftoff.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. CPI Rebounds 0.1% or Greater
EURUSD M5: 140 pips price movement by USD - Consumer Price Index news event:
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.06.18
GBPUSD M5: 29 pips price range movement by USD - CPI news event
USDJPY, M5, 2015.06.18
USDJPY M5: 30 pips price range movement by USD - CPI news event
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.19 11:10
Did it BREAK higher and fail, or are we going back above the old ceiling (based on forexlive article)
The EURUSD broke above the ceiling at the 1.1379-86 area. The move above
spent 8 hours above. Over the last two hours the price has moved back
below that ceiling. The pair has been consolidating over 7 or so days
until the extension higher today. The move back below the ceiling is a
disappointment. Is that it? IS that all the market could do? Was that
your best shot?
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.20 07:34
US Week Ahead: GDP, PCE, Durable Goods, UMich Sent, Housing (based on efxnews article)
Existing home sales likely rose a solid 4.4% to 5.26 million units in May. May
existing (previously-owned) home sales are expected to post a solid
4.4% gain to 5.26 million units, more than reversing the April dip.
Pending sales of existing homes, a leading indicator, have seen a steep
upward trajectory since January and touched a post-recession high in
Durable goods orders likely slipped 0.2% in May while ex-transportation orders likely rose 0.6%.
We expect durable goods orders to fall 0.2% while ex-transportation
orders likely bounced back with a 0.6% increase. Non-defense aircraft
orders likely weighed in May as Boeing reported only 11 new aircraft
orders, down from 37 in April.
May new home sales are expected to rise 1.1% to a 523K unit annual rate. New
home sales likely saw continued growth in May, rising 1.1% to 523K
units. Sales in April jumped 6.8% led by a surge in the Midwest. We look
for sales to increase on balance in May, albeit at a softer pace as the
Midwest region likely retracted a touch.
In its third and final release, Q1 GDP growth likely saw an upward revision to -0.1% from -0.7%.
We look for an upward revision to Q1 real GDP growth (-0.1% vs. -0.7%),
reflecting revisions to March trade data that imply less of a decline
in net exports.
The May headline PCE price index likely rose 0.4% on the month with the core index rising 0.1%. As
a result, annual PCE inflation likely firmed to 0.2% YoY while core
inflation was stable at 1.2% YoY. The May headline PCE price index
likely rose 0.4% on the month while the core index is expected to rise
0.1%. Both match the monthly increases in the May CPI. In the May CPI
report, energy prices boosted consumer prices with the gasoline index
rising 10%, while food prices remained weak with a flat print.
Personal nominal income likely rose 0.5% in May while spending likely picked up with a 0.6% increase. May
nominal income likely rose 0.5%, slightly firmer than the 0.4% increase
in April. Earnings and hours posted strong gains in May, with average
hourly earnings and the aggregate workweek both rising 0.3%.
The final University of Michigan (UofM) consumer sentiment index likely confirmed a rebound in June to 94.6 from 90.7 in May. June
UofM consumer sentiment likely confirmed its preliminary print of 94.6,
up from 90.7 in May. A June rebound in sentiment will be most welcome
as the weak May reading marked the lowest level since November 2014. Gas
prices hardly moved since the preliminary survey release, standing at
$2.80/gal on average at the time of writing. After a volatile few weeks,
stock prices also have rebounded from their June lows.
Something Interesting in Financial Video February 2014
Sergey Golubev, 2014.02.10 11:15
06: DURABLE GOODS
This is the 6th video in a series on economic reports created for all
markets, or for those who simply have an interest in economics. In this
lesson we cover the Durable Goods report.
Durable Goods Orders (DGO) is an
indicator of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable
goods are expected to last more than three years, e.g.: cars, furniture,
This indicator is important for the
market because it gives an idea of the consumers' confidence in the
current economic situation. Since durable goods are expensive, the
increase in the number of orders for them shows the willingness of
consumers to spend their money on them. Thus, the growth of this
indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to
growth of the national currency.
USDJPY M5 : 47 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event
EURUSD M5 : 32 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event :