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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.03 21:01
A short Cheat-Sheet For Trading Greek Referendum In FX - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)
1- "Victory of the “No” camp, would immediately cast markets in
uncharted territory. The vote alone might not necessarily trigger a
systemic reaction, but we would expect the increase in uncertainty to
weigh on EUR and on risk assets, with surging demand for “safe haven”
currencies such USD, CHF, JPY and GBP," CS projects.
2- In the event of a “Yes” vote, we think the likely knee-jerk move higher in EURUSD would likely be short-lived. The
victory of the “Yes” camp, would likely have a more limited impact on
monetary policy stances outside of the Euro area, in our view. In other
words, the removal of the immediate risk of a potentially systemic event
would allow markets to refocus on the policy divergence story," CS
3- "Finally, while a “yes” victory would reduce the
immediate risk of a Greek exit from the euroarea, many aspects of the
post-vote outlook would remain very uncertain. As an example, a
minimally reworked extension of the now expired Greek bailout terms
could be viewed by markets as insufficient to prevent renewed flaring up
of peripheral risk later this year," CS argues.
4- "We remain firmly of the view that this story remains EUR bearish," CS concludes.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.03 21:05
Tech Setups For USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD - Barclays (based on efxnews article)
USD/JPY: Thursday’s sell-off into the close signals a
short-term top that caps the recent rally attempt. We prefer to use any
subsequent dip as an opportunity to buy at better levels and expect
buying interest near 122.00 to underpin a move towards the 124.40 area. A
break above the latter would open the 125.85 greater range highs.
Further out, we are targeting the 132.20 area.
GBP/USD: Yesterday’s “doji” candle has compelled us to
re-establish a bullish view. A break above 1.5670 would add to our
bullish conviction and open our targets near 1.5790 and then the 1.5930
AUD/USD: The break below the 0.7585 range lows
endorses our bearish view reachnig our initial targets near the 0.7530
lows. Further out, we look for a move towards the 0.7100 area.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.05 14:52
Weekly outlook by Morgan Stanley for USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF (based on efxnews article)
USD: Neutral"We see scope for USD to remain supported against most currencies in
G10. Data over the past week has been strong, most notably consumer
confidence. At the same time, the market has pushed back the timing of
the first Fed hike due to uncertainty in Greece. We see scope for this
to come forward on the back of a resolution in Greece in either
direction, offering support to USD."
EUR: Bearish"We believe there is little scope for EUR to rally, regardless of the
outcome in Greece. A ‘No’ vote in the referendum is likely to lead to
Greece exit from the euro over time. The ECB may well have to undertake
aggressive action to stabilize markets, and the enhanced liquidity is
likely to weigh on the currency. On the other hand, a ‘Yes’ vote without
a credible plan for the future, but rather a ‘muddle through’ solution
is likely to keep uncertainty high and reduce appetite for eurozone
JPY: Bullish"In an environment of soft risk appetite, we think that JPY is likely to
be an outperformer. Higher volatility is likely to drive some
repatriation flows as well, and we note that portfolio flows have turned
more positive. JPY is the most overvalued G10 currency on a PPP basis,
supporting our view that there is scope for strength. Stronger data mean
the policy tone is changing, and we expect the currency to remain
GBP: Neutral"GBPUSD has weakened from Greek risks and weaker-than-expected
manufacturing PMI; however, we still see strength in the more important
services sector. In particular wages here appear to be picking up which
has supported rate expectations in the UK and therefore GBP. We believe
there is potential for GBPUSD to reach 1.60 but prefer buying on the
crosses, in particular against the NOK where an accommodative central
bank highlights the divergences between the two currencies."
CHF: Bearish"The SNB announced that it intervened following the Greek referendum
announcement. This suggests to us that the SNB is less worried about the
level of EURCHF and intervened more on the anticipation of rapid CHF
strength. While Greek risks remain, the rapid falls in EURCHF are likely
to be limited. We wait for opportunities to buy USDCHF as longer term
we will start to see the negative economic impact of the stronger
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.06 13:40
UBS: Trade Ideas for EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD (based on efxnews article)
EURUSD: "it has had a muted reaction despite the surprise
outcome from the Greece referendum. Even though the market is
positioned short, we expect the pair to test the downside sooner rather
than later this week. Keep it tight but prefer short and add on more
spikes above 1.1055 with stops above 1.1125."
GBPUSD: "Cable should remain vulnerable to Greek
updates. Cable could continue holding the recent downtrend with the
double top just ahead of 1.6000 while approaching the 200-day moving
average at 1.5447. Stay flexible and keep stops extremely tight, but
AUDUSD: "The reaction to the Greek 'No' vote has been
muted so far but risk should trade soft given the likelihood of further
escalation of the crisis. Sell rallies to 0.7500-0.7550 with stops
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.06 18:18
EURUSD moves back toward trend line and MA resistance (based on forexlive article)
'The EURUSD was able to move back above the 100 day MA at the 1.10379 level
and we are now seeing a further move higher in the pair. Earlier today,
the price extended to the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below)
and a topside trend line (see blue circles) and held. The price is
looking toward that same combination. This time it is a bit lower at the
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.07 08:04
Deutsche Bank - What Risk Resilience Implies For Grexit & The EUR (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.07 16:47
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UBS (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: "It looks like summer markets have kicked in,
but the Greek uncertainty is keeping things alive. We still prefer
shorts even though the range play will most likely continue. Sell at
1.1055 and add at 1.1090 with stops above 1.1125. Flows are mixed with
no clear direction."
AUD/USD: "The RBA kept the target rate on hold, as
expected. Stay short and add on rallies to 0.7550 with stops through
0.7625, targeting 0.7200."
NZD/USD: "price action remains very soft after the pair
got capped above 0.6710 yesterday. We prefer to remain short and add on
rallies toward 0.6750 with stops through 0.6850."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.08 08:09
EURUSD has a squeeze higher and a rotation back lower (based on forexlive article)
'The EURUSD moved above the 100 bar MA on the intraday 5-minute chart and
the 50% of the last leg down. That was enough to trigger some stops
above 1.0958. The move back above the 50% of the move up from the March
2015 low at 1.1063 (not shown) also contributed to the rise and the
price scooted to 1.09749.'
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.09 07:42
JP Morgan about EUR/USD: Levels & Targets (based on efxnews article)
"EUR/USD overnight break above 1.0983/1.1002 (minor 38.2 %/pivot)
eased some downside pressure, but only through clear moves above 1.1094
and 1.1108 (h.Ich.-lagging/h. trend) we’d reach neutral territory," says JP Morgan.
the downside, JPM sees the next T-zone between 1.0815 and
1.0783/72/44/04 (May low/c=a/d. Ich.-lagg./int. 76.4 %//daily trend)."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.09 10:33
Trading news events - Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)
The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may offer little relief
to recent decline in GBP/USD as the central bank is widely expected to
retain its current policy in July, and the committee may continue to
endorse a wait-and-see approach amid the growing threat of a Greek exit.
Why Is This Event Important:
Heightening uncertainties surrounding the Euro-Zone – the U.K.’s
largest trading partner – may prompt the BoE to further delay its
normalization cycle, and the British Pound may face additional headwinds
in the second-half of the year should Governor Mark Carney highlight a
more dovish outlook for monetary policy.
However, the BoE may largely retain its current policy throughout the
remainder of the year as the geopolitical risks surrounding the U.K.
dampens the outlook for growth and inflation, and the central bank may
carry the record-low interest rate into 2016 in an effort to encourage a
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: BoE to Stay on Course to Remove Record-Low Interest Rate