Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 194

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.21 11:19

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (adapted from the article)

  • "A sharp rebound in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the appeal of the Canadian dollar, but another downtick in the core rate of inflation may fuel the near-term rebound in USD/CAD as puts increased pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further support the real economy."
  • "The BoC may continue to ‘actively’ discuss more stimulus for the real economy amid the ongoing adjustment to the oil price shock, and the central bank may reestablish its easing cycle over the coming months as Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. now anticipate the economy to reach full-capacity ‘materially later than the Bank had anticipated in July.’ In turn, USD/CAD may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year, but the BoC may preserve its current policy throughout the remainder of 2016 as the central bank argues the risks surrounding the inflation outlook are ‘roughly balanced.’"


Bullish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Rebounds in September

  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a long loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."
Bearish CAD Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Fall Short of Market Forecast
  • "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short trade on USD/CAD."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located near and above 200-day SMA (200 SMA) for the primary bullish market condition.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.3306 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price breaks 1.3005 support to below on close daily bar so we may see the bearish reversal of the daily price movement.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.21 14:48

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and 92 pips range price movement

2016-10-21 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% on a year-over-year basis in September, following a 1.1% gain in August."
  • "Excluding gasoline, the CPI was up 1.5% year over year in September, after posting a 1.7% increase in August."
  • "On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in September, after declining 0.1% in August."
  • "In September, four major components increased on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, while three declined. The shelter index was unchanged."

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index:


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USD/CAD M5: 92 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event



 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 23.10 - 30.10: bearish breakdown to be continuing with 1.08 target

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.23 16:29

Daily price is on located to be below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the bearish breakdown will be continuing for the week in the secondary ranging way - price is breaking 1.0911 support level to below for 1.0814 bearish daily target.

Chinkou Span line is located below the price for the bearish breakdown, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a ranging bearish market condition in the near future.

If D1 price breaks 1.0911 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.0814 bearish target.

If D1 price breaks 1.0968 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If D1 price breaks 1.1141 resistance level on close bar from below to above so we may wee the reversal of the daily price movement from the bearish to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.0911 for close bar for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0911 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Resistance
Support
1.09681.0911
1.11411.0814

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : breakdown


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.25 08:00

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC Gov Poloz Speaks and 112 pips range price movement

2016-10-24 19:30 GMT | [CAD - BoC Gov Poloz Speaks]

[CAD - BoC Gov Poloz Speaks] = speech before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa.

==========

From official report:

  • "It is our normal practice to appear before this committee twice a year to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). We published our latest MPR last week and are happy to answer questions about it and other economic topics. However, I suspect you may also want to ask about the agreement with the federal government that was announced this morning, which renews our inflation-control framework for another five years. So, before we respond to questions, allow me to say just a few words on both topics, beginning with the MPR."
  • "We expect the government’s measures will restrain residential investment by curbing resale activity in the near term and lead to a modest change in the composition of construction toward smaller units. We estimate that this will leave the level of GDP 0.3 per cent lower at the end of 2018 than projected in July."
  • "Now, it is fair to say that even after years of very low interest rates, the recovery from the Great Recession in many economies remains weak. So it is not really surprising that some are wondering if monetary policy has lost its power. Low interest rates are actually doing a great deal to support the economy. To illustrate this point, if we were to raise interest rates to pre-crisis levels, say 3 to 4 per cent, there would be a significant contraction in the economy, and it is these contractionary forces that we are offsetting with low interest rates."

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USD/CAD M5: 112 pips range price movement by BoC Gov Poloz Speaks news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.25 15:30

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and 20 pips range price movement

2016-10-25 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

==========

From official report:


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EUR/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.25 19:20

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/JPY : The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2016-10-25 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report:

"Consumer confidence retreated in October, after back-to-back monthly gains,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current business and employment conditions softened, while optimism regarding the short-term outlook retreated somewhat. However, consumers’ expectations regarding their income prospects in the coming months were relatively unchanged. Overall, sentiment is that the economy will continue to expand in the near-term, but at a moderate pace."

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EUR/USD M5: 43 pips range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events


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USD/JPY M5: 74 pips range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.26 05:52

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) and 20 pips range price movement

2016-10-26 00:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.4%
  • forecast data is 0.5%
  • actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

==========

From official report:


==========

AUD/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.26 16:33

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Home Sales and 14 pips range price movement

2016-10-26 14:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

  • past data is 575K
  • forecast data is 601K
  • actual data is 593K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - New Home Sales] = Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.

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From market watch article: New-home sales run at annual 593,000 rate in September as market grinds slowly higher

  • "Sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That was 3.1% higher than August’s figures, which had originally been reported as 609,000. Sales in September were 29.8% higher compared to a year ago."
  • "Despite robust demand, builders haven’t ramped up construction of new homes since the recession. Many continue to report difficulties in finding affordable labor and lots. But some analysts note that builders can reap fatter margins by keeping inventories lean and targeting higher-end customers."

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EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by New Home Sales news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.27 08:05

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade and 12 pips range price movement

 

2016-10-26 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -1243M
  • forecast data is -1123M
  • actual data is -1436M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From official report:


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NZD/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by New Zealand Trade Balance news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.27 09:54

Trading the News: U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (adapted from the article)

  • "GBP/USD may stage a larger rebound over the next 24-hours of trade as the advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is expected to show the U.K. economy expanding another annualized 2.1% in the third-quarter of 2016, and signs of better-than-expected growth may encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to retain the current policy throughout the remainder of the year as the central bank sees growing risk of overshooting the 2% target for inflation."
  • "The BoE may continue to embark on its easing-cycle over the coming months as ‘a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower bound,’ but Governor Mark Carney and Co. may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach going into 2017 as central bank officials warn the next quarterly inflation due out on November 3 will reflect the sharp decline in the exchange rate. Even though the threat of a ‘hard Brexit’ instills a long-term bearish outlook for the British Pound, GBP/USD may face a larger correction over the days ahead especially as the BoE appears to be in no rush to implement lower borrowing-costs.’"


Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. GDP Expands Annualized 2.1% or Greater

  • "Need a green, five-minute candle following the report to favor a long GBP/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a long sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."
Bearish GBP Trade: 3Q Growth Report Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • "Need a red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located below 100-day SMA (100 SMA) and 200-day SMA (200 SMA) for the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 1.2081 support level to be crossed for the bearish trend to be resumed.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.2081 support to below on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.1938 nearest daily bearish terget.
  • If price breaks 50.0% Fibo level at 1.2457 to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

GBP/USD M5: 31 pips range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event:

 

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