Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for NZD/USD
NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 17.04 - 24.04: ranging bullish
Daily price is on bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud - the price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
- 0.6965 key resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
- 0.6758 key support level located near and above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend.
Chinkou Span line is above the price for the ranging bullish market condition,, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be started, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price movement as the secondary ranging condition to be continuing.
If D1 price will break 0.6758
support level on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bulluish trend will be started with 0.6574 lbearish reversal level as the next target.
If D1 price will break 0.6965
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
- Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 0.6965 for possible buy trade
- Recommendation
to go short: watch D1 price to break 0.6758 support level for possible sell trade
- Trading Summary: ranging bullish
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| 0.6965 | 0.6758 |
| N/A | 0.6574 |
SUMMARY : ranging
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 08:08
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Consumer Price Index and 75 pips range price movement
2016-04-17 22:45 GMT | [NZD - CPI]
- past data is -0.5%
- forecast data is 0.1%
- actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
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- The consumers price index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent to a level of 1200.
- Petrol prices fell 7.7 percent, making the largest downward contribution.
- Low oil prices contributed to price falls for air fares.
- Housing-related prices and food prices rose.
- Prices for tradable goods and services fell 0.9 percent, while prices for non-tradable goods and services rose 1.0 percent.
- After seasonal adjustment, the CPI rose 0.2 percent.
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NZD/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by NZ Consumer Price Index news event :
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 20:04
Technical evaluation of long-term BNZ forecasts (adapted from the article)
Bank of New Zealand made a long-term forecasts for some pairs as the following:
| Pair | By end of Q2'16 (June 2016) | By end of Q3'16 (September 2016) | By end of Q4'16 (December 2016) | By end of Q1'17 (March 2016) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1200 | 1.1100 | 1.0900 | 1.0900 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6500 | 0.6300 | 0.6100 | 0.6100 |
As we do not know the trading system they used for this forecast so let's evaluate on technical way by Metatrader together with using free Codebase indicators.
EUR/USD. As we see from the chart below - weekly price is on bearish market condition with the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
- Fibo resistance level at 1.1464 located near the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bullish trend on the chart, and
- support level at 1.0821 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area on the primary bearish trend.
The price is on local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in the end of February this year: price is testing Fibo resistance level at 1.1464 to above for the rally to be continuing. The next alternative scenario was evaluated by BNZ and it is related to the following: the price will be on bearish ranging within narrow support/resistance levels such as the following: 23.6% Fibo level at 1.1241 and 50.0% Fibo level at 1.0993. Bank of New Zealand is expecting for this ranging bearish condition to be continuing up to the end of Q1'17 for example.
I think the more likely sscenario for this pair in long-term situation is to ranging with more wide levels within 1.1400 and 1.1000, and those levels are fully related to the daily chart's s/r/ levels together RSI and price pattern's expectation for example.
NZD/USD. BNZ is estimating for this pair to be on bearish ranging within very narrow levels with the bearish trend to be continuing since 0.6500 to 0.6100. But if we look at weekly chart so we can see the bearish market condition with the different ranging levels: the price is on ranging within Fibo resistance level at 0.6965 and 61.8% Fibo support level at 0.6564. By the way, the ascending triangle p[attern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bear market rally to be continuing with the possible buloish reversal to be started in the future.
RSI indicator is also estinating the secondary rally with possible bullish reversal.
Thus, the most likely scenarios for the pair are the following: bearish ranging within 0.69/0.65 levels, or the bullish erversal to be started in case the price breaks 0.6965 to above.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.23 08:53
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, USD/CNH, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
NZD/USD - "At the end of last week, the ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.22 as 55% of traders are long. Long positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 17.4% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 16.2% lower than yesterday and 25.6% below levels seen last week."
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.27 08:21
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade and 19 pips price movement
2016-04-26 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]
- past data is 367M
- forecast data is 405M
- actual data is 117M according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.
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NZD/USD M5: 19 pips price movement by NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade news event :
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.04 08:53
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Unemployment Rate and 36 pips price movement
2016-05-03 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Unemployment Rate]
- past data is 5.4%
- forecast data is 5.5%
- actual data is 5.7% according to the latest press release
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter.
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- New Zealand’s labour force grows 1.5 percent, the largest quarterly growth since December 2004.
- Employment growth exceeds population growth over the quarter.
- The unemployment rate increased to 5.7 percent, from a revised rate of 5.4 percent last quarter.
- Wage inflation remains subdued.
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NZD/USD M5: 36 pips price movement by NZ Unemployment Rate news event :
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.08 08:46
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CNH, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
NZD/USD - "The consistent surprises in New Zealand’s economic data alongside increasing doubts of any rate increases from the Federal Reserve in 2016 has lead to an appreciation of ~11% since the January low in NZD/USD. Understandably, a commodity-reliant economy favors a weaker US Dollar, but a stronger currency does make exports less attractive to other nations. Therefore, we’ll need to be on the lookout for Wheeler’s tone about this development to see if the price of NZD/USD is outside of their tolerance level."
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.11 09:03
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Financial Stability Report and 68 pips price movement
2016-05-10 21:00 GMT | [NZD - RBNZ Financial Stability Report]
- past data is n/a
- forecast data is n/a
- actual data is n/a according to the latest press release
[NZD - RBNZ Financial Stability Report] = It provides insights into the bank's view of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future.
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NZDUSD M5: 68 pips price movement by RBNZ Financial Stability Report news event :
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.13 07:18
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Retail Sales and 9 pips price movement
2016-05-12 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]
- past data is 1.1%
- forecast data is 1.0%
- actual data is 0.8% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
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NZD/USD M5: 9 pips price movement by NZ Retail Sales news event :
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.17 09:27
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Inflation Expectations and 28 pips price movement
2016-05-17 03:00 GMT | [NZD - Inflation Expectations]
- past data is 1.63%
- forecast data is n/a
- actual data is 1.64% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Inflation Expectations] = Percentage that business managers expect the price of goods and services to change annually during the next 2 years.
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Expectations for the next two year edged up to 1.64 percent from 1.63 percent the previous survey. The survey was conducted by the Nielsen Company for the RBNZ.
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NZD/USD M5: 28 pips price movement by RBNZ Inflation Expectations news event :
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 20:45
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: GlobalDairyTrade Price Index and 37 pips price movement
2016-04-05 15:27 GMT | [NZD - GDT Price Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - GDT Price Index] = Change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction.
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NZDUSD M5: 37 pips price movement by GlobalDairyTrade Price Index news event :