Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for GBP/USD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.27 09:54

Trading the News: U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (adapted from the article)

  • "GBP/USD may stage a larger rebound over the next 24-hours of trade as the advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is expected to show the U.K. economy expanding another annualized 2.1% in the third-quarter of 2016, and signs of better-than-expected growth may encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to retain the current policy throughout the remainder of the year as the central bank sees growing risk of overshooting the 2% target for inflation."
  • "The BoE may continue to embark on its easing-cycle over the coming months as ‘a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower bound,’ but Governor Mark Carney and Co. may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach going into 2017 as central bank officials warn the next quarterly inflation due out on November 3 will reflect the sharp decline in the exchange rate. Even though the threat of a ‘hard Brexit’ instills a long-term bearish outlook for the British Pound, GBP/USD may face a larger correction over the days ahead especially as the BoE appears to be in no rush to implement lower borrowing-costs.’"


Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. GDP Expands Annualized 2.1% or Greater

  • "Need a green, five-minute candle following the report to favor a long GBP/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a long sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."
Bearish GBP Trade: 3Q Growth Report Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • "Need a red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located below 100-day SMA (100 SMA) and 200-day SMA (200 SMA) for the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 1.2081 support level to be crossed for the bearish trend to be resumed.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.2081 support to below on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.1938 nearest daily bearish terget.
  • If price breaks 50.0% Fibo level at 1.2457 to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

GBP/USD M5: 31 pips range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event:

 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.02 13:34

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, and GBP/USD : ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

2016-11-02 12:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

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From official report:


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EUR/USD M5: 13 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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GBP/USD M5: 32 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.03 14:37

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of England Official Rate and 72 pips range price movement

2016-11-03 01:45 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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From official report:

  • "The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 2 November 2016 the Committee voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%.  The Committee voted unanimously to continue with the programme of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases totalling up to £10 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.  The Committee also voted unanimously to continue with the programme of £60 billion of UK government bond purchases to take the total stock of these purchases to £435 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves."

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GBP/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by Bank of England Official Rate news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.04 13:52

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and GBP/USD : Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-11-04 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report:

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 161,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, professional and business services, and financial activities."

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EUR/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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USD/CAD M5: 65 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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GBP/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.08 10:54

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Factory Production and 12 pips range price movement

2016-11-08 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

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From official report: 

  • "This is the first quarterly estimate for Index of Production (IoP) covering data post-EU referendum. Quarterly estimate for production output decreased by 0.5% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016. The largest downward pressure came from manufacturing, which fell by 0.9%, partially offset by a rise in mining and quarrying of 4.3%."
  • "The monthly picture shows a decrease of 0.4% compared with August 2016. Mining and quarrying was the main sector to show a fall of 3.8%, partially offset by an increase in manufacturing of 0.6%. Users should note that we always warn against overly interpreting 1 month's figures."

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GBP/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by U.K. Factory Production news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.16 07:51

Trading News Events: U.K. Claimant Count Change (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "GBP/USD may continue to carve a near-term series of lower highs & lows as U.K. Jobless Claims are projected to increase another 2.0K in October, but a marked pickup in household earnings may heighten the appeal of the British Pound as the Bank of England (BoE) warns ‘monetary policy can respond, in either direction.’"
  • "It seems as though the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is gradually move away from its easing cycle as Governor Mark Carney warns ‘inflation is going up. A pass through of a 20% fall in sterling is going to come and will build towards the end of this year and into 2017,’ and the sterling may stage a larger recovery over the near-term as BoE officials argue that ‘there are limits to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated,’ Nevertheless, the MPC appears to be in no rush to remove the highly accommodative stance as the outlook for the U.K. economy remains clouded with high uncertainty, and the British Pound remains at risk of facing headwinds over the coming months as the region prepares to depart from the European Union (EU)."


Bearish GBP Trade: Job & Wage Growth Falls Short of Market Forecasts

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the report to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a long sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."
Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Employment Report Beats Expectations
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD position."
  • "Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse."


Daily price is on bullish trending along Senkou Span line which is the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area on the chart. The price is on ranging within 1.2673 'bullish continuation' resistance level and 1.2352 'bearish reversal' support level waiting for the direction of the primary trend to be started.

  • If the price will break 1.2673 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price will break 1.2352 support on close daily bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

GBP/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news events 

 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 07:40

Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 20 - November 27 (based on the article)



The US dollar continued marching forward, accompanied by clear hints of a rate hike. US Durable Goods Orders, UK GDP and the all-important FOMC Meeting Minutes stand out in the week of Thanksgiving. These are the major events on forex calendar.

 

    1. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 16:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg.
    2. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30. Economists expect durable goods to rise 1.2% in September, while core goods to rise 0.2%.
    3. US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 241,000 this time.
    4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
    5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. These are the minutes from the November meeting, in which the Fed left rates unchanged but argued that the case for raising rates has “continued to strengthen”.
    6. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. German business climate is expected to register 110.6 in November.
    7. UK GDP data: Friday, 9:30. The second estimate is expected to confirm the first one, but changes are not uncommon.

     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 11:20

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


    GBP/USD - "Fed Funds Futures are now pricing a 95% probability for a year-end move as the central bank argues ‘the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,’ and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes due out next week may reinforce the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback as Janet Yellen and Co. appear to be following a similar path to 2015. With that said, a hawkish policy statement paired with a rebound in Durable Goods Orders may act as positive catalysts for the dollar, and GBP/USD may revisit the opening monthly range as the near-term recovery loses momentum. Keep in mind that the major currencies are vulnerable to thin market conditions as U.S. traders go offline for the Thanksgiving holiday."


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.24 08:18

    Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

    H4 price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA on the bullish ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

    • 1.2500 resistance level located above 200 SMA in area of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
    • 1.2359 support level near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.


    Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be continuing with the ranging condition withn 1.2300/1.2600 levels waiting for direction:

    "As highlighted yesterday, despite the strong rebound from the Monday’s low of 1.2313, it is too early to expect to a sustained up-move. The strong pull-back yesterday reinforces our current neutral view and we continue to expect GBP to trade choppily, likely within a broad 1.2300/1.2600 range."


    • If daily price breaks 1.2589 resistance level on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
    • If daily price breaks 1.2301 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary ebarish market condition will be started.
    • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.26 10:26

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


    GBP/USD - "Meanwhile, the BOE Financial Stability Report seems unlikely to offer anything particularly novel. Credit conditions have appeared to be broadly stable since mid-August since recovering from a slump in the referendum’s immediate aftermath. This means that the central bank is probably comfortable in wait-and-see mode for the time being, saving its ammunition for the possibility that something truly worrisome transpires."


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