Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 145

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.28 07:18

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and 59 pips price movement

2016-01-27 20:00 GMT | [NZD - RBNZ Official Cash Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - RBNZ Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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"The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.5 percent.

Uncertainty about the strength of the global economy has increased due to weaker growth in the developing world and concerns about China and other emerging markets. Prices for a range of commodities, particularly oil, remain weak. Financial market volatility has increased, and global inflation remains low."

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NZDUSD M5: 59 pips price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.28 10:43

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: GBP Gross Domestic Product and 73 pips price movement

2016-01-28 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015 compared with growth of 0.4% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015.
  • Output increased in 2 of the main industrial groupings within the economy in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015. Services increased by 0.7% and agriculture increased by 0.6%. In contrast, production decreased by 0.2%, while construction output decreased by 0.1%.
  • GDP was 1.9% higher in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015 compared with the same quarter a year ago. GDP in 2015 as a whole increased by 2.2% on 2014. xxx In Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015, GDP was estimated to have been 6.6% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. From the peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to the trough in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009, the economy shrank by 6.1%.
  • The preliminary estimate of GDP is produced using the output approach to measuring GDP. At this stage, data content is less than half of the total required for the final output estimate. The estimate is subject to revision as more data become available, but these revisions are typically small between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP."

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GBPUSD M5: 73 pips price movement by GBP Gross Domestic Product news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.28 14:52

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Durable Goods Orders and 25 pips price movement

2016-01-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 0.0%
  • forecast data is -0.7%
  • actual data is -5.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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EURUSD M5: 25 pips price movement by Durable Goods Orders news event :



 

Just about crude oil price which is crossing 200 period SMA from below to above on H4 intra-day chart to be reversed from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.29 07:30

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and 252 pips price movement

2016-01-29 03:38 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Monetary Policy Statement]

[JPY - BOJ Monetary Policy Statement] = It's among the primary tools the BOJ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on asset purchases and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

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1. The  Introduction  of  "Quantitative  and  Qualitative  Monetary  Easing (QQE) with  a  Negative Interest Rate"
  • The Bank will apply a negative interest rate of minus 0.1 percent to current accounts that financial institutions hold at the Bank. It will cut the interest rate further into negative territory if judged as necessary.
  • The Bank will introduce a multiple-tier system which some central banks in Europe (e.g. the  Swiss  National  Bank)  have  put  in  place. Specifically, it will adopt  a  three-tier system in which the outstanding balance of each financial institution's current account at the Bank will be divided into three tiers, to each of which a positive interest rate, a zero interest rate, or a negative interest rate will be applied, respectively.
2. "QQE  with  a Negative Interest  Rate" is  designed  to  enable  the  Bank  to pursue additional monetary  easing  interms  of three dimensions,combining a  negative  interest  rate  with quantity and quality.
  • The  Bank  will  lower  the  short  end  of  the  yield  curve  and  will  exert  further  downward pressure  on  interest  rates  across  the  entire  yield  curve through  a  combination  of a negative interest rate and large-scale purchases of JGBs.
  • The Bank will achieve the price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time by making full use of possible measures in terms of the three dimensions.

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USDJPY M5: 252 pips price movement by BOJ Monetary Policy Statement news event :



 

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.29 10:21

EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - secondary correction to the possible bearish reversal

H4 price was on the breakout by crossing Ichimoku cloud to above with the bullish reversal: the price broke key resistance level and stopped by 1.0967 resistance for the secondary correction to be started with 1.0864 target. The price is moved withing the following key reversal s/r levels for now:

  • 1.0967 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of intra-day chart, and
  • 1.0788 support located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area.

The support level at 1.0869 is located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart so if the price breaks this level so the bearish reversal may be started.

  • Chinkou Span indicator is located above the price for the correction to be continuing by the direction.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be continuing.
  • Trend Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be finsihed soon by the direction.
Resistance
Support
1.09671.0869
1.09751.0788


If H4 price will break 1.0869 support level on close H4 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish condition may eb started with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
If H4 price will break 1.0788 support level on close H4 bar so the price will be fully reversed to the bearish market condition.
If H4 price will break 1.0967 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : secondary correction to possible bearish reversal

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.29 15:26

Intra-Day Fundamentals: Gross Domestic Product and 114 pips price movement for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

2016-01-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - Gross Domestic Product]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Gross Domestic Product] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent."

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EURUSD M5: 63 pips price movement by Gross Domestic Product news event :


GBPUSD M5: 51 pips price movement by Gross Domestic Product news event :



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.30 09:03

Week Ahead by Crédit Agricole: NFP, RBA, FX Wars, GBP Squeeze, Sell AUD, NZD Rallies (based on the article)


  • "The calm maybe deceiving and the bulls maybe heading to a ‘China’ shop. Indeed, potential disappointments from the China PMIs could well halt the risk bounce in its tracks. Apart from the RBA, which may sound extra dovish just to keep AUD from bouncing further, there will not be many central bank speeches to sooth market nerves further."
  • "We remain constructive on USD against the background of raging global currency wars that should more than offset the negative impact of the recently more dovish Fed. Next week’s US data calendar could further boost policymakers’ confidence in the near-term outlook of the US economy and even inflation, and help USD."
  • "GBP looks oversold to us and more indications that PM Cameron and his EU colleagues are inching closer to a deal could help the currency consolidate. The BoE Inflation report should not trigger another bout of re-pricing of BoE rate hike prospects and, with so many negatives in the price by now, that could leave GBP as a prime candidate for a short squeeze."

  • AUD – 'Next week’s Chinese business activity data should prove the currency’s main driver. We expect rallies to remain a sell.'
  • GBP – 'We see limited scope of next week’s BoE announcement and inflation report pushing GBP lower.'
  • USD – 'Next week’s payrolls report should prove constructive enough in order to prevent rate expectations and the greenback from falling further.'
  • NZD – 'The policy outlook should keep the NZD a sell on rallies.'

 

The Week Ahead - S&P 500 and DAX Index: bear market rally to be continuing in a medium term with the possible bullish reversal in a long-term situation

S&P 500 daily: bear market rally to be started. The price is on primary bearish market condition located below Central Yearly Pivot at 2019.77 for the secondary ranging around S1 Pivot at 1905.11. The secondary bear market rally to be started on open daily bar for now with 1966.99 resistance level to be broken to above for the rally to be continuing. If the price breaks this 1966.99 on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally will be continuing up to Central Yearly Pivot at 2019.77 as the next bullish reversal target to re-enter.


Instrument
S1 Pivot
Yearly PP
R1 Pivot
S&P 500
1905.11
2019.77
2176.41

DAX Index daily: bearish ranging below Central Pivot. The price is located below Central Pivot at 10807 and above S1 Pivot at 9190 in the primary bearish market condition. Price was started with the local uptrend as the bear market rally last week and it was bounced from 9919 resistance for the secondary ranging to be started within 9919 and 9298 s/r levels.
  • If the price breaks 9919 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the rally will be continuing up to Central Pivot at 10807 as the target,
  • if the price breaks 9298 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing,
  • if not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

Instrument
S1 Pivot
Yearly PP
R1 Pivot
GX
9190
10807
12317
 

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.31 13:01

GBPUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 31.01 - 07.02: ranging bearish to the secondary bear market rally

Daily price is on primary bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud with the ranging within 1.4406 resistance and 1.4079 support levels. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing, and Trend Strength indicator is forecasting the local uptrend as the secondary bear market rally to be started.

If D1 price will break 1.4079 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 1.4731 resistance level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition may be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.4731 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.4079 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish
Resistance
Support
1.44061.4172
1.4731
1.4079




SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish

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