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Forecast and levels for EUR/USD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.25 17:47

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2017-04-25 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 124.9
  • forecast data is 123.7
  • actual data is 120.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report:

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in March, declined in April. The Index now stands at 120.3 (1985=100), down from 124.9 in March. The Present Situation Index decreased from 143.9 to 140.6 and the Expectations Index declined from 112.3 last month to 106.7."
  • "Consumer confidence declined in April after increasing sharply over the past two months, but still remains at strong levels,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers assessed current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, the labor market less favorably than in March. Looking ahead, consumers were somewhat less optimistic about the short-term outlook for business conditions, employment and income prospects. Despite April’s decline, consumers remain confident that the economy will continue to expand in the months ahead."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


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GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.27 14:29

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Minimum Bid Rate and range price movement 

2017-04-27 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. 

==========

From official report:

  • "At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.27 18:44

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Press Conference and range price movement 

2017-04-27 13:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB Press Conference]

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = It's the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy. 

==========

From official report:

  • "Incoming data since our meeting in early March confirm that the cyclical recovery of the euro area economy is becoming increasingly solid and that downside risks have further diminished."
  • "At the same time, underlying inflation pressures continue to remain subdued and have yet to show a convincing upward trend."
  • "If the outlook becomes less favorable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase our asset purchase programme in terms of size and/or duration."

==========

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event 



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.28 12:37

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index and 45 pips range price movement 

2017-04-28 10:00 GMT | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - CPI Flash Estimate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

==========

From official report:

  • "Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.9% in April 2017, up from 1.5% in March 2017, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 45 pip range price movement by Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index news event



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.28 15:09

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-04-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 2.1%
  • forecast data is 1.3%
  • actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report:

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017(table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In thefourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent."
  • "The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 26, 2017."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.29 09:54

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, April 30 - May 07 (based on the article)

EUR/USD jumped higher on the favorable results of the French elections. PMI and GDP data stand out in the first week of May, in the run up to the second round of the French elections.


  1. Manufacturing PMIs: Tuesday morning: 7:!5 in Spain, 7:45 in Italy, final French data at 7:50, final German figures at 7:55 and final euro-zone data at 8:00.
  2. German Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 7:55.
  3. Unemployment Rate: Tuesday, 9:00.
  4. Spanish Unemployment Change: Wednesday, 7:00. 
  5. PPI: Wednesday, 9:00.
  6. Services PMI: Thursday, morning: 7:!5 in Spain, 7:45 in Italy, final French data at 7:50, final German figures at 7:55 and final euro-zone data at 8:00.
  7. Retail PMI: Thursday, 8:10.
  8. Retail Sales: Thursday, 9:00.
  9. French Trade Balance: Friday, 6:45.

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.05 12:27

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (adapted from the article)

  • "The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may generate a mixed market reaction as the economy is anticipated to add 190K jobs in April, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to uptick to an annualized 4.6% from 4.5% the month prior. Moreover, household earnings are expected to hold steady at 2.7% per annum, and a lackluster labor report may fuel the near-term resilience in EUR/USD especially as market attention turns to the final around of the French election."
  • "With Fed Fund Futures now pricing a greater than 70% probability for a June rate-hike, the fresh speech from Chair Janet Yellen may trigger a more meaningful reaction as market participants continue to gauge the timing and pace of the normalization cycle. A more detailed approach in unloading the Fed’s balance sheet may curb the recent advance in the euro-dollar exchange rate as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopts a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy, but the event may fail to prop up the greenback should the central bank head merely try to buy more time."


Bearish USD Trade: Employment Report Shows U.S. Approaching Full-Employment

  • "Need a green, five-minute candle following the NFP report to consider a long EUR/USD position."
  • "If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate lots."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit." 
Bullish USD Trade: NFP Expands 190K; Jobless Rate & Wage Growth Hold Steady
  • "Need a red, five-minute EUR/USD candle to favor a long dollar position."
  • "Carry out the same setup as the bearish dollar setup, just in reverse."


Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.0986 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price breaks 61.8% Fibo support level at 1.0738 to below on close daily bar so we may see the bearish reversal of the daily price movement.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls news event


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.06 09:40

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, May 07 - May 14 (based on the article)

EUR/USD edged higher ahead of the second round of the French elections. Does it have more room to the upside? Apart from the elections, we have GDP and other events from the old continent. 


  1. French elections round 2: Sunday, exit polls are at 18:00 GMT and real results will trickle around the market open.
  2. German Factory Orders: Monday, 6:00.
  3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. This business survey has advanced nicely in recent months, reaching 23.9 in April, beating expectations for the fourth consecutive month.
  4. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:00.
  5. German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 6:00. 
  6. French CPI (final): Tuesday, 6:45.
  7. French Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:45.
  8. French Trade Balance: Wednesday, 6:45. 
  9. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 8:00. Two weeks after Draghi was optimistic about growth but unsure about inflation, we will get more data from the central bank, the data they used for making their assessments.
  10. EU Economic Forecasts: Thursday, 9:00.
  11. German GDP: Friday, 6:00.
  12. German CPI (final): Friday, 6:00. 
  13. French Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 9:00. 
  14. Industrial production: Friday, 9:00.

Waseem Raza
9612
Waseem Raza  
EUROZONE will get more confidence after Macron as President and EURO can go up 5000 points 
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.08 15:58

EUR/USD, French elections, and more (adapted from the article)

Daily price is breaking the six-month high level at 1.0998 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing. The price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish with ascending triangle pattern to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing.

By the way, the next bullish target is 20-month high at 1.1326.


Neil Wilson, a senior markets analyst at City of London brokerage ETX Capital (the London-based Scottish analyst): "The result sends a loud signal to investors that political risks in France and across Europe are receding and that is undoubtedly supportive of European equities and the euro. Nevertheless this Macron win is very much a pro-risk event. The relief rally we have seen since the first round looks set to continue even though Sunday’s expected result was to some extent largely priced in."

Neil Mellor, Senior Currency Strategist and managing director at BNY Mellon: "The lack of a well-oiled Party machine behind Macron risks the possibility of a weak Presidency if there is ‘cohabitation’ i.e. a politically non-aligned President and Prime Minister, which last happened in 1997. Nevertheless, we would not be surprised were the euro pushing toward US$1.11 in early Asian trading. After all one of the features of the EUR in recent years has been its use as a funding currency for carry trade activity, which has resulted in the curious outcome that the currency  has often strengthened during times of Eurozone stress and has fallen amidst rising optimism."

Bill Street, head of investments for EMEA at State Street Global Advisors: "It gives markets a much deserved breather from European politics. This result, combined with last week’s preliminary Greek debt agreement, will be enough to support a short-term relief rally. Looking forward, Macron only offers upside surprises. In a do-nothing scenario, we have the status quo of political paralysis, but with a favourable external environment and steady growth improvement. In the goldilocks scenario, he gets a working parliament and builds a partnership with Germany to launch meaningful reforms. That would deliver a substantial boost to markets by year-end, which is currently not priced in."


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