As you read these words,you may just start wondering if I have discovered something that can make you rich..Well..it can,but the end result depends on you.
What I have discovered is something that can skew the probabilities in your favour..imagine playing roulette,knowing that Red has a 75% probability in the next 50 roulette runs..wouldn`t you bet Red?Well,some of you won`t,but that is Ok,you are the ones that pay our bills,so,keep going..
Why I am showing it to you my friends?..Ahh..besides my ego..well,..keep reading
First: 95% of you will be able just to lose money using this tool,and this is a fact.
You will tweak,modify,don`t believe,whatever..and you will end up losing money,as usual...no problem,money is not for everybody to have..you must earn it..so,if money is not for you..save your time..stop reading now.
Second: What I am going to give you,will last for approx 6/9 months..then you will have to modify,slightly ,to keep earning money with it,and,unless you really do your job,you are not going to be able to "tweak" it for permanent use.I will point the right direction to you,and even assist,personally and individually,those that really deserveto be assisted-By the way,I will do it for free,investing my scarce time if I feel somebody really deserves it
Third: Most of you will be unable to have the necessary/required discipline,to follow the way,and after the usual drawdown times,you will forget about it and look for greener pastures..but,Men and Women,we are not herbivores,we are predators my friends..we eat traders for lunch..literally..yes,yes,we are insurance companies..but They Are Predators Too..Hadn`t you realized?
Fourth : I will give you the .ex4 version..yes,yes,I know,there are lurking shadows in the dark that can decompile our indicators(tremble..tremble..),but,frankly,I do not give a scheisse about them.please reread point Second and you will understand why
Fifth : This "probability enhancer" is valid only for GBPUSD,so,there are many other pairs where I can employ this technique..and you can not..
So..it is not going to really affect my trading,but It can affect yours..A LOT
1-For those of you that are STILL(point Third of this post has something to do with it..? ) following my Simba system for Gbpusd..I have not become crazy( I already was..;) )..this is something that can just add an edge to trading the basic system..and if you have the discipline to trade it,this addition will be your "second best friend" in trading.I will keep posting in the Simba system thread for as long as I feel there are interested people..I will just add my comments from this thread to clarify pertinent issues.
2-For those few of you that really understand..it will be like putting a FATL on the SATL..you will have 2 edges instead of one..like a Con Man that can tell you how many high/low cards are left in the Black-Jack "shoe"..this indicator will help you to know when you can "Bet The House"..and when,even if all the other tested indicators tell you to go for it,you just have to "Fold Them" , or at max ,bet the minimum.
In my next post,I wil include the philosophy behind the "Simba ConMan" indicator ,and..of course,the .ex4 version of it..until then,have a nice time.
Con Man Philosophy
What is the philosophy behind my Con Man indicator?
Well ,basically the same philosophy that a professional black jack player uses when counting the remaining High/Low cards before deciding about betting and size of bet...WE WANT TO STACK THE PROBABILITIES IN OUR FAVOUR.
A pro bjack player knows,by counting,the approx probability of a high card coming..
We will know,by using my indicator ,the approx probability of an uptrend/downtrend coming.
I do not believe in prediction,I basically just trade the slope of the 4H SATL(WITH SEVERAL VARIATIONS),which is how I define a trend..but I have found that having a predictive indicator,that gives me the "stacking of the deck"/probability of up/downtrend..with approx 85% accuracy,helps me in refining my position size and take profit strategies for a particular period.
So,if my predictive Con Man indicator tells me that we are in a potential downtrend..and the slope of the SATL is up..I will be long,but my position size will be aprox half the normal one,and I will go for 30/50 pips fast profits,avoiding keeping an open position overnight.
Conversely if Con Man tells me downtrend,and SATL slope is down,I will double my usual position,Take profit 50 pips on only half a position,adding new positions as soon as feasible,with the aim of riding a downtrend in size.
The Simba Con Man indicator is an "INVERTED COMPOSITE CYCLE" indicator on the daily timeframe that tells me with approx 85%probability if we can expect to be in a down/uptrend during the next month or 2.
INVERTED CYCLE means that when the indicator slope goes up,prices-probably-go down and viceversa.
COMPOSITE means that the indicator is composed of several cycles
I used several programs to discover,add and refine the Cycles:Cycletrends,Mesa,Digital filter generator.
I based my job on the teachings of JM HURST and JOHN EHLERS
This is the only indicator that I created entirely on my own,without "legoing" the work of others...to create it in MT4 version I used the digital filter generator,posted(thanks again) by Newdigital.
All the cycles included in the composite have extremely high Bartels(90+),so,the probabilty of them being "fake" cycles is minimal.
Take a look at the pics,they cover the past 3.5 years..if you like them,I will post the .ex4 for you to use
So, the point the "Con Man" is at the close of the "period" is an indication as to where the imediate thrend will be, right (i.e if at bottom, immediate trend is down)?
If the slope of the conman has just changed from up to down,AND UNTIL IT GOES TO UP AGAIN,you can expect a daily uptrend with 85% probability.Of course during this expected daily uptrend,you can have minor and intermediate corrections,so,you trade your usual methods,but with a positive bias for long entries.
As an example,see my previous pics,now we are in an expected downtrend for GBPUSD,so,the buy signals that I receive from any of my systems,I take with a grain of salt..and I go very strongly for it,when I receive any sell signal.
That's what I thought. Looks good.
I'll be following this thread and forward test it when you make it available.
i agree with siotero
I will as well be following this thread, simba, you seem to make many good threads, I don't like to post much, but just had to tell ya that.
Forward test is important!
Thanks,you are right on all counts
1-There is some of the ANG indicators which is basically a Fast Fourier transform applied to price,If I can find it in one of my computers I will post here for you.
2-I do not think Fourier is very useful for live trading..Due to the fact that Fourier constantly self evaluates,the Fourier transforms for any moment in time can be subsequently changed.
It is not that it repaints,it is that the nature of Fourier transforms is repainting
1-If you have not already done so,buy/download/whatever JMHURST "The profit magic of stock transaction timing"..in spite of the title this book is the bible of anybody that wants to apply cycles to any market..I started making money the moment I understood it.
Hurst wrote it in 1973,and believe me,33 years later you can make a ton of money by just understanding its principles and applying them to any market.
2-Download the digital filter generator(posted by newdigital somewhere in this Forum,just do a search).There are 2 versions,English and Russian,choose the one that suits you and play with it for your favorite currency pairs and timeframes..enjoy the results
3-If you are able to apply what Hurst teaches for moving averages using digital filters instead of smas..well someday you will post your own Tragapips con man
Thank you very much for the info.
Tragapips-ang "fourier" indicator
I found the ang "fourier" indicator..take care ,it repaints,it is excellent for "post" confirmation but not so for "pre" positioning a trade.
Either Tonight or during this week end I will post the Simba Con Man .ex4