The Simba Con Man - page 28
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Hİ
Where can ı find adaptive cycle and mtf indicator? Thanks..
Genius
oh yes, that's the art; and answers is inside the thread, but there are still much more questions;
Oh dear..., now on every other page on Simba's thread will be Qs: "does it repaints?"- Igor right
Mladen should answer the Simba's questions, but what i can tell - he is genius mathematician and programmer (like i am : ((( ); his scripts - a few lines instead of pages of code - clear, clean like light, flies through and does what it shouldfxbs,I appreciated mladen posting here his indicator...You say that both mladen and you are genius mathematician and programmers...and one essential quality of genius is to explain things simply
...so,please confirm your condition by explaining us non genius the excellence of your ways.
Neither the ConMan original indicator nor the Hurst centered smas repaint...what repaint are the new tools we are using in order to improve on the original setup....People using them,including myself, are convinced they are an improvement...I will check mladen new one and if it improves the setup I will use it non stop,if it doesn`t I will post here why ,when,where and how...just that I would like to know a potential "because" before I do invest several hours on it.
Now,a question for you...What is the probability of clahn CLSlope&CLSlope2MTF setup being simultaneously wrong at 2 timeframes?...the real McCoy is that he has no need to be right at both TFs...he has just to avoid being wrong at both simultaneously.
fxbs,I appreciated mladen posting here his indicator...You say that both mladen and you are genius mathematician and programmers...and one essential quality of genius is to explain things simply
Neither the ConMan original indicator nor the Hurst centered smas repaint...what repaint are the new tools we are using in order to improve on the original setup....People using them,including myself, are convinced they are an improvement...I will check mladen new one and if it improves the setup I will use it non stop,if it doesn`t I will post here why ,when,where and how...just that I would like to know a potential "because" before I do invest several hours on it.
Now,a question for you...What is the probability of clahn CLSlope&CLSlope2MTF setup being simultaneously wrong at 2 timeframes?...the real McCoy is that he has no need to be right at both TFs...he has just to avoid being wrong at both simultaneously.it appears maybe the only difference between the 2 is the type of MA being used? The lines appear to be identical, but the Triangular is delayed a bit ( or just calculated at a diff value).
cl
Hurst projection
Projecting using Mladen's Ma's on gbpusd got a dominant cycle of 95 on M5 & Daily data so using half cycles of 47,23,11 on m5 all ready broke the trendline but projecting to go to 1.7140 area, and on daily to 1.7345 area give or take 10%, see what happens.Thanks Clahn04 & Mladen for posting your indicators, and thanks Simba for this thread.
To avoid confusion
I did not imagine that there are going to be so many reactions to posting that indicator...
Now, the intention why I did it : I really think that calling things with their right names can help in any further development. Snake was given its name for reasons I do not know. The fact is that it is a centered triangular moving average and as an addition a kind of "extrapolation" for the missing HalfPeriod bars. For the sake of simplicity, I will call the addition of those "missing" bars an extrapolation, even if sometimes (like in snake indicator) it is not an extrapolation.
Every centered moving average is missing values from the right side (like on the first picture : triangular ma centered without "extrapolated" data, second with those "extrapolated" data) It is a question how that data is going to be "added" to centered ma's. Snake uses the method they decided to use (the same method is added to the indicator I posted - code looks different, but in essence it is the same) It is by far not the best method there is for extrapolation but it is used in those two indicators.
For comparison : third picture shows SSA (singular spectrum analysis) in red color, and TriangularMA centered in lime color compared. Essential difference is in the last HalfPeriod bars that are repainting (yes, SSA repaints also). SSA repaints less and as almost a rule the "predicted" part of TriangularMA tends, in later bars, to take the values SSA "predicted".
That was the purpose of my post : extrapolation is what we all are after (I too would like to "know" with xx% certainty what the price is going to be tomorrow) Basis for Snake (TriangularMA) is a very sound (it is the only ma recommended by Brian Millard, for example) The part that does not work to our expectations is the "predicting" part. So, in my opinion, that is the part where it should be worked on. That was and is my intention
Hope this clarified the what and the why I posted something
regards
mladen
Extrapolation
I did not imagine that there are going to be so many reactions to posting that indicator...
Now, the intention why I did it : I really think that calling things with their right names can help in any further development. Snake was given its name for reasons I do not know. The fact is that it is a centered triangular moving average and as an addition a kind of "extrapolation" for the missing HalfPeriod bars. For the sake of simplicity, I will call the addition of those "missing" bars an extrapolation, even if sometimes (like in snake indicator) it is not an extrapolation.
Every centered moving average is missing values from the right side (like on the first picture : triangular ma centered without "extrapolated" data, second with those "extrapolated" data) It is a question how that data is going to be "added" to centered ma's. Snake uses the method they decided to use (the same method is added to the indicator I posted - code looks different, but in essence it is the same) It is by far not the best method there is for extrapolation but it is used in those two indicators.
For comparison : third picture shows SSA (singular spectrum analysis) in red color, and TriangularMA centered in lime color compared. Essential difference is in the last HalfPeriod bars that are repainting (yes, SSA repaints also). SSA repaints less and as almost a rule the "predicted" part of TriangularMA tends, in later bars, to take the values SSA "predicted".
That was the purpose of my post : extrapolation is what we all are after (I too would like to "know" with xx% certainty what the price is going to be tomorrow) Basis for Snake (TriangularMA) is a very sound (it is the only ma recommended by Brian Millard, for example) The part that does not work to our expectations is the "predicting" part. So, in my opinion, that is the part where it should be worked on. That was and is my intention
Hope this clarified the what and the why I posted something
regards
mladenmladen,
Thanks for clarifying...Though I would like to point out that IMHO,the reactions you got,from frequent contributors to this thread, were mostly positive...Myself in particular would be very happy to see you contributing to this thread on a frequent basis.
Regarding SSA,What values do you use to compare with Triangular ma?How many components,what lag,what is the (n)umber of past bars you use to fit it to the chart?I am asking it because I have used the Full SSA indicator,trying all kind of combinations,and have been unable to find anything of value,probably due to my lack of understanding about it,so,it would be interesting if you added some info about how you have found it to be of use for trading.
When using Snakes,I have found(and a couple of members here have confirmed)that it is fairly easier to make money by just entering once the move is under way,forgetting to catch tops and bottoms,just looking for the continuation move...I posted a couple of examples on Friday and Tools just posted one a few hours ago,his target(the short term one,not the D1) was hit soon after he posted it...and this is what usually happens with Snakes when you just wait for TL and slope confirmation instead of trying to catch tops and bottoms,You hit your target and you close the trade at a profit...fast.
Hope this helps.
...
The two compared on that picture (post #276) are:Number of past bars on SSA does not influence the result too much (it does not do things like FFT for example where the end result almost entirely depends on the point where it started the calculation) Differences are minimal and can be ignored (just for comparison : green set on 300 bars, red set on 1000 bars).Library found on metatrader forum (link posted on fft thread) unfortunately needed a lot of rewriting in order to avoid computer hanging up for lags > 10 or more bars (metatrader and its P-code like ex4s are not a good choice for coding anything more complicated than the usual stuff found around - maybe version 5 (they keep promising))
The rest is simple : price is the only input to the array calculated and thus it gives values like those on the picture
As of usage : you are right, catching tops or bottoms is a game that only billion dolar owners do (after all they provoke the tops and the bottoms) We are the ones that should go with the stream. And these are fairly good in predicting a continuation but also are giving warning signs that it can change (it rests to one discretion as to what to do with the "warning signs").
GBPJPY analysis -
The immediate bull correction seems to be over. Both the 1 hour and 5 minute are at their projections. The 4 hour is still down, but turning up. I think it's too early to tell if the move downward as shown by the 4 hour is over or not. Only time will tell. If it is over, it appears we are in for a correction before the march upwards continues ( as shown by the 1 hour being at it's projection...it still could run). Watching the 4 hr is paramount.
Thoughts?
All the best,
cl
Fibs
Clahn,
Thank you for your charts and sharing your trading system here. I have a question as to how you are projecting your fibs into the future. What are you using to gauge where to snap them to.
Thank you!
Jim
Jim,
I'm still trying to define that process myself, and there is a lot of error to account for. Here is basically what i'm doing.
I try to evaluate the higer time frame ( i.e. 1hour or 4 hour) first. In my previous post, i thinkn my projection was too premature (i.e. the cross of the snake lines was still changing and moving higher, taking the projection higher).
When the turn begins, i've found it very risky to enter. Once we establish an up trend as in the 1 hour, we can begin to ESTIMATE where the cross of the MA's would be. This would represent 50% or half of the move (roughly...see Hurst). So, i just draw a fib from the base and have the 50% mark at the cross, then you can project further from that to where 100% would be ( the "profit" target). I'm by no means an expert at this. I'm still trying to learn the nuances of the smaller time frames as well. Each time frame effects each other.
Simba has talked about trend line breaks as well, and that signaling an even "safer" place to enter. Drawing the trend lines is somethign i'd love to be schooled on more.
Hope that helps a bit. Again i am no expert, i just think you have to be constantly evaluating price action to lead you.
Best,
cl