Press review - page 558

[Sergey Golubev]

General Electric’s stock price - weekly bearish breakdown; daily rally to the bullsh reversal (based on the article)

The price on the weekly chart is on bearish breakdown: price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the reversal from the primary bullish to the primaru bearish market condition. 

By the way, the daily price is on the secondary rally to be started with nearly to be reversed to the bullosh so if this tendency will remain - we may see the global bullish reversal for this stock price for example.

• "General Electric’s (NYSE: GE) stock price fell nearly 20% in the last three months due to management changes and concerns over profitability. The Baker Hughes acquisition also played a role in the decline, as many investors had issues with the idea of increasing the company’s exposure to the oil industry given the volatility in oil prices. Additionally, downgrades by JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank also influenced investors to some extent. However, we believe that GE is currently udervalued and should bounce back despite the concerns we discussed above. The strong growth in GE’s aviation, power, and renewable energy businesses is likely to continue due to growing demand and international expansion. GE’s margins are also generally higher than its peers, and the company continues to work on cost-cutting measures. Additionally, GE will benefit from its investments in the industrial internet of things."
• "GE’s stock price fell from nearly $31 to $24 in around three months. The stock started to decline after GE’s CEO Jeff Immelt announced that he was stepping down effective August 1 after nearly 16 years as the company’s CEO. GE agreed to buy Baker Hughes last year, and investors had hoped that oil prices would bounce back after the OPEC deal to cap production. However, crude oil prices did not increase even 6 months after the OPEC deal. As GE’s dependence on the oil industry has increased with the completion of the Baker Hughes deal, investors have expressed concern due to the continued weakness in the oil industry. Additionally, analysts from JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank lowered their ratings on GE’s stock recently, stating that the company’s fundamentals are worse than they expected and that GE could cut its dividends going forward."
• "We believe that GE’s stock is unlikely to tank much further, as the market has already priced in the abovementioned factors."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, September 24 - October 01 (based on the article)

The US dollar rallied on the Fed decision but its strength faded away. What’s next? The German elections, durable goods orders, and several GDP publications stand out as Q3 draws to a close. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. New Zealand elections: Saturday. The polls indicate that everything is possible.
2. German elections: Sunday, results are due before markets open in Asia. All in all, a victory for Merkel would be positive for the euro, but this is mostly priced in.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. A score of 119.6 is projected.
4. US New Home Sales: Tuesday, 14:00. An increase to 591K is on the cards.
5. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. A more modest rise of 0.2% is forecast.
6. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the interest rate at 1.75% once again. The RBNZ likes to complain about the strength of the currency, and this time, the elections will have a material effect on the exchange rate, thus determining the reaction from Graeme Wheeler and his colleagues. They usually “make the trend their friend”. So, a drop in the NZD could provide an opportunity to push it even lower, while a rise in the currency would be hard to mitigate.
7. US GDP (final): Thursday, 12:30. A small upgrade to 3.1% is on the cards.
8. UK GDP (final): Friday, 8:30. This will likely be confirmed in the final read.
9. Euro-zone inflation (flash): Friday, 9:00. Higher levels of inflation can shorten the process, while protracted low inflation can slow it down.
10. US Core PCE Price Index: Friday, 12:30. A monthly rise of 0.2% is expected.
11. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, September 24 - October 01 (based on the article)

EUR/USD dropped to lower ground, but gradually recovered, holding onto known ranges. The German elections provide a strong start to the week, which continues with inflation figures and other data. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. German elections: Sunday, results are due before markets open in Asia.All in all, a victory for Merkel would be positive for the euro, but this is mostly priced in.
2. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. Germany’s No. 1 Think-tank’s business climate measure has been beating expectations in the past few months, pointing to optimism about the economy. The figure stood at 115.9 points in August, sticking to the highs.
3. Italian CPI: Tuesday, 9:00. The third-largest economy in the euro-zone saw prices rising by 0.3% in August, better than early predictions. It is the first major country to publish inflation figures this month.
4. Monetary data: Wednesday, 8:00. 
5. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00. A similar level is likely now.
6. Spanish CPI (preliminary): Thursday, 7:00. In August, prices rose by 1.6%.
7. German CPI (preliminary): Thursday: the German states release the data during the morning and the all-German figure is published at 12:00. Germany saw a modest rise in prices in August: 0.1%. The figure from Europe’s largest economy has the biggest weight in the euro-zone CPI.
8. German Retail Sales: Friday, 6:00. 
9. German Import Prices: Friday, 6:00.Import prices fell by 0.4% in July.
10. French CPI (preliminary): Friday, 6:45. The second-largest economy in the euro-zone releases its initial estimate a few hours before the all-European number. Prices rose by 0.5% m/m in August. A slower level is likely now.
11. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 6:45. Also in France, consumer spending is quite volatile: sales rose by 0.7% in July after a drop of the same scale in June.
12. German Unemployment Change: Friday, 7:55. Germany enjoys a consistent drop in unemployment. The number of the unemployed dropped by 5K in July.
13. CPI (preliminary): Friday, 9:00. After all four major countries released their data, we get the preliminary estimate for the full 19-country bloc. Headline CPI rose by 1.5% in August, higher than beforehand. Core CPI held its ground at 1.2%.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - bullish ranging near intra-day bearish ranging reversal (based on the article)

Intra-day H4 price is above 200 SMA and near above 100 SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart. The price is testing 1.1935 support level to below for the ranging market condition with 1.1890 bearish reversal level as a nearest taregt in this case.

• "The reaction to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday may dictate which way the euro heads for the foreseeable future.” That was indeed the case for the week in terms of ‘tug-of-war’ as both top and bottom-side levels proved even further to be formidable to both sides of the market. The reaction to a directly hawkish Fed came just as the euro had been edging higher along the underside of a trend-line on the 4-hr chart. The sharp move lower quickly found support on the April trend-line where a bounce ensued on the two days to conclude the week where the euro ended up closing unchanged Friday."
• "Something has to give at this point – either a strong breakout to the top-side or a clean slice through the April trend-line. Then we can likely expect momentum to pick up. It won’t be long before top and bottom-side thresholds intersect, and with a few more sessions of the same ole back-and-forth trading that will be the case. A ‘head-and-shoulders’ (H&S) formation is still in the works with the lower close on Friday. If we continue to jostle around it would be a welcomed event as pressure would be pent up into a wedge formation, leading to a potentially explosive move. The trend suggests a break higher, but with these type of funneling situations it is wise to wait for a break. A breakout above the 9/8 swing-high at 12092 will bring into focus the June 2010 monthly closing print at 12236, while an April trend-line break will quickly find 11825 to contend with (H&S neckline, a break below will confirm pattern), but not likely hold given the growing importance of the trend-line. On the downside in the event of a break, the area between 11700/11600 will come into focus as support."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The US Dollar was spared a fifth consecutive week of losses, with the Fed monetary policy announcement helping prices to rebound from a 15-month low. Chair Janet Yellen and company stood by near- to medium-term rate hike projections despite disinflation in the first half of the year, which markets saw as comparatively hawkish (as expected). They also announced the start of “quantitative tightening” (QT). The Eurozone’s monetary authority will decide on the fate of its QE asset purchases next month, with many market participants seemingly primed for a cutback. Meanwhile, the BOC has launched its own rate hike cycle recently and the BOE has signaled it is preparing to follow suit in the near term. Bargain-hunting in the early stages of tightening outside the US may prove too compelling to pass up for investors."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "While political uncertainty and sluggish economic growth might argue for a weaker British Pound, it seems unlikely to lose much of the gain made so far this year against the US Dollar, largely because there is a clear risk that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy at the November 2 meeting of its rate-setting monetary policy committee."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "All that probably means is that the “USD” side of AUD/USD will continue to drive. There are plenty of heavyweight US economic releases on the sked, including a second look at second-quarter Gross Domestic Product. We’ll also hear from Fed Chair Janet Yellen again. She’s down to speak on Tuesday. While the pair may very well move on any of the above, it’s tough to spot anything likely to break the current, well-entrenched trading pattern. So, yet another neutral call it has to be."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "The big item on next week’s calendar out of Japan is inflation for the month of August, set to be released on Thursday evening (Friday morning in Europe and Japan). Given that we’ve just gotten a fresh dose of dovishness from the BoJ, this would likely need to be shockingly-high to directly elicit Yen strength, as the .4% inflation that we’ve seen for the past four months is well-below the BoJ’s 2% target and keeps the BoJ in a position to remain as one of the more dovish global Central Banks."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for NZD/USD (based on the article)

NZD/USD - "The New Zealand dollar remains bid ahead of the election as opinion polls show Prime Minister Bill English as the favored candidate, but fresh remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may sway the near-term outlook for NZD/USD as the central bank appears to be on course to preserve the record-low cash rate throughout 2017. Despite the change in leadership, Deputy Governor Grant Spencer may strike a similar tone as his predecessor, Graeme Wheeler, as ‘numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.’ As a result, the, the RBNZ is widely expected to retain the current policy at the September 28 meeting and the central bank may merely attempt to buy more time as ‘GDP in the March quarter was lower than expected, adding to the softening in growth observed at the end of 2016.’ It seems as though the RBNZ will continue to lag behind its U.S. counterpart as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) shows a greater willingness to implement another rate-hike in 2017, and the kiwi-dollar exchange rate may exhibit a bearish behavior going into the end of the month should Deputy Governor Spencer and Co. tame expectations for higher borrowing-costs."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)

S&P 500 - "The S&P is still looking to hold onto the prior record highs from August, with the 2491 level on watch. As we noted earlier in the week, the trend and recent breakout favors higher prices, but a rally could quickly be capped by one of a pair of top-side trend-lines. One extends back to March and clocks in close to 2520, while the other crosses over highs since June and registers in the vicinity of 2430/35. They are moving targets given the upward slope. A strong undercut of 2491 would be reason to be cautious."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).