Press review - page 519

[Sergey Golubev]

Nikkei 225 Index - daily bullish; 20,015 is the key level (based on the article)

Daily shares price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is testing 20,015 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "The Nikkei 225 has made its highs for the year in the past week. Indeed, it is now loitering around peaks not seen since the end of 2015."
• "Well, the technical signs are rather mixed as you’d expect. But they’re by no means universally gloomy. For one thing, the current thrust higher from April 17 has quite convincingly broken a notable down-channel in place since March 13. In the 21 trading sessions since that break the index has managed 13 daily gains and only seven (modest) losses on the way to current highs."
• "Moreover, the last time the index got up to these levels, it only stayed there for about twelve trading sessions before collapsing in exhaustion. This was back in 2015. This time it has already occupied the heights around 199800 for eight trading days. So, a weekly close around current levels and range trading into next week would be a pretty good sign for those worried that history will repeat itself."

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Producer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-05-16 23:45 GMT | [NZD - PPI Input]

• past data is 1.0%
• forecast data is 0.7%
• actual data is 0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - PPI Input] = Change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. 

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From official report:

• "The input PPI rose 0.8 percent."
• "The output producers price index (PPI) rose 1.4 percent."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Producer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - bullish breakout (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish breakout which was started in the end of the previous week: the price is testing 1.1097 resistance to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Retail trader data shows 29.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.43 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.06101; price has moved 3.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.2% lower than yesterday and 12.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.7% higher than yesterday and 27.8% higher from last week."
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias."

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index - waiting for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging within 12,839 resistance and 12,518 support level waiting for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started.

• "The market has taken back most of the ~100-point gap, and is also trying to recapture that broken trend-line. Looking for points of resistance: On a sustained rally, first up is the gap-fill and the under-side of the broken wedge, followed by the record high at 12842."
• "Should we see the market fail to push beyond the gap and roll over we will look back towards the session low at 12770 first. A break below the intra-day low brings the 12660 area into play."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-05-18 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 60.0K
• forecast data is 4.5K
• actual data is 37.4K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

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From official report:

• "Employment increased 37,400 to 12,099,300. Full-time employment decreased 11,600 to 8,227,400 and part-time employment increased 49,000 to 3,871,900."
• "Unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 pts to 5.7%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

[Sergey Golubev]

FTSE 100 and the S&P 500 Turns Lower (based on the article)

"Yesterday, global stocks were shaken on political upheaval in Washington. The FTSE 100 managed to escape yesterday’s sessions relatively unscathed, but it wasn’t until the afternoon session in the U.S. (when London was closed) that the S&P 500 took another big leg lower to close near the lows of the day. We saw this spill-over into Asia overnight and Europe is under a bit of pressure at the time of this writing."

"Given the lines influence as resistance since January will it now have an important impact as support, or will we see another event like in March where it traded above for a couple of days before retreating back below? The difference between then and now and perhaps the difference-maker, is that in March the footsie started wobbling as soon as it broke above; while this time there was a clean break with momentum. A lot depends on how bad things get in the U.S. – whether it’s a short-lived reaction to turmoil surrounding the Trump administration or the beginning of a significant decline. The thinking on this end is there is at least a little more weakness in store, but not sure just yet it turns into a rout."

"Keeping it simple and consistent in approach, we’ll react to price action as per usual. On a drop into old resistance now turned potentially new support (~7400), how the market responds will be the tell. With lesser importance, the April trend-line is also in the vicinity. If buyers step in, then we may have a successful test on our hands; but drop on through, then we could see a larger decline unfold and the recent surge will have turned out to be another false breakout."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and range price movement 

2017-05-18 18:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech at the University of Tel Aviv. 

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From official report:

• "The crisis is now behind us. The recovery in the euro area is resilient and is increasingly broad-based across countries and sectors. Domestic demand, supported by the ECB’s monetary policy, is the mainstay of that recovery. Five million more people are employed now than were in 2013, and unemployment though still too high is at an eight-year low. Worldwide, the financial sector is now more resilient. The global economic outlook is also improving, and downside risks are moderating."
• "Values and judgement lie at the heart of all our undertakings. But they need to be supported by continuing research, ever increasing knowledge, and uncompromising examination of facts. This was true in addressing the great financial crisis, designing and implementing policies that improve the world economy and building institutions that deliver peace and prosperity in Europe. But it is also true in all the fields represented today by my fellow recipients. That is why we must be grateful to all places of knowledge, and today to the University of Tel Aviv."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading Gold and Silver (based on the article)

"Trading gold and silver has become increasingly popular over recent years. More and more Forex brokers are offering trading in gold and silver, as well as some other precious metals such as platinum and palladium, but gold and silver take up most of the speculative interest in this category. In addition to trading precious metals virtually, there are a lot of offers available to buy and sell gold and silver bullion and take physical ownership in the shape of coins, ingots and other collectables; but this article will focus on the online trading of gold and silver."

Gold and Silver Price Behavior

"To trade gold and silver successfully, it is important to put thoughts of the commodity itself out of your mind and just focus on the behavior of its price. Gold and silver prices are traditionally quoted in U.S. Dollars, but some brokers will price it in Euros and other currencies. If you do trade these metals against currencies other than the U.S. Dollar, do keep in mind that most of the world watches it against the U.S. Dollar, so keep an eye on what is going on there."

Gold and Silver Trading Method

"If you are reading this and thinking that trend trading gold and silver is the way to go, you are probably on the right track: as with Forex currency pairs, trading in the direction of the multi-month movement in price has been a profitable strategy in recent years, although over a somewhat longer-term time frame, with the six-month trend being most predictive overall. This result is arguably distorted, however, by the fact that the precious metals have generally been buoyant against national currencies, and here we get close to the hearts of those who believe that all non-convertible, fiat currencies are inevitably eventually debased against widely accepted stores of value such as precious metals. It is certainly true that it is hard to find a strategy which has been profitable in recent history over the long-term which is based upon shorting gold and silver against currencies. Time of day, contrary to popular myth, is not especially important."

Gold or Silver?

"Gold and silver have a high positive correlation, i.e. they tend to fluctuate in value together. To give you an idea as to how this has worked in recent years, look at the chart below showing both against the U.S. Dollar."

Gold and Silver Trading Strategy

"Finally, how could you build a trading strategy for these precious metals? Trend trading strategies typically have produced the best results. Well, they both tend to move fast and quite explosively, so buying new highs in strong uptrends when the price is above its level from 6, 3 and 1 months back has been a successful method, especially when using volatility rather than candle-based stops. With commodities such as these, it has been very profitable to sit back and let winning trades run and run."

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index - bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 12,843 resistance for the bullish trend to be continue and 12,491 support for the secondary correction to be started.

• "In the process, the market also closed well below the February top-side trend-line it was leaning on as support for the week or so before. So far, yesterday’s reversal day is showing a little follow-through this morning, but we’ll be quickly looking at 12660 as a hurdle to overcome if the DAX is to see the bounce grow legs and become a full-blown rally. For now, it’s resistance until it’s not. A move beyond 12660 will bring attention towards the underside of the Feb trend-line, and possibly new highs."
• "It’s still a little unclear whether this week’s down-move is all we’ll see, or whether another wave of selling will push the market lower. The thinking on this end is we will see another leg lower before making a serious attempt to resume higher. It’d be preferable, too, as key levels of support have not yet been met. Ideally, we see a move to the old record highs under 12400 and/or (depending on whether they collide for confluence or not) the trend-line rising up from December under the April swing-low."
• "Getting to the point: 12660 is our focal point as resistance; maintain below there on a closing basis and the market will continue to be vulnerable to further selling. A move beyond will bring the underbelly of the Feb trend-line into play, but may also mean the market is gearing up for another run at record levels. Yesterday’s low at 12490 is our first level of support followed by much more significant support around 12390/75 and the December/April trend-line."

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold Intra-Day Price: bullish ranging for correction (based on the article)

H4 price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing 1245 support level to below for the secondary correction to be started.

• "Retail trader data shows 80.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.23 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.3% lower than yesterday and 13.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.7% lower than yesterday and 5.2% lower from last week."
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias."