Forecast and levels for EURO - page 3

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Hello, Mr.Sergey! I'm a newbie. Now I'm trading at Teletrade.

After Macron's election, the market fluctuates. Hope that the price will continue to increase as your analysis article. I set a buying limit order. Thank you for your article!

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.09 17:51

EUR/USD - daily correction to be started; 1.0741 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish trend with the seondary correction to be started yesterday by bounced from 1.1017 resistance level to below. The price is testing 1.0874 and 1.0851 support levels for the correction to be continuing with Fibo bearish reversal level at 1.0741 as a nearest target to re-enter.


  • "The Euro recoiled from twelve-month down trend resistance against the US Dollar, validating earlier signs of ebbing upside momentum. Confirmation of a larger top implying continuation downward is still pending however as prices test the bounds of the short-term uptrend."
  • "A daily close below trend line support at 1.0934 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0862. Alternatively, a break above major resistance at 1.1002 (trend line, 76.4% Fib expansion) paves the way for a challenge of the 100% threshold at 1.1136."
  • "Entering short looks increasingly compelling but risk/reward considerations argue against the trade for now. With that in mind, an entry order to sell EUR/USD at 1.0955 has been set up. If triggered on a bounce, the trade will initially target 1.0826 and have a stop-loss activated on a daily close above 1.1002."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.10 17:08

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and range price movement 

2017-05-09 12:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

  • past data is -0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech about the impact of monetary policy at the Dutch House of Representatives, in Netherlands. 

==========

From official report:

  • "Specifically, the euro area faced two interlinked and successive crises – a financial crisis in 2008 and a sovereign debt crisis that started to emerge in 2011 and derailed the rebound. The recovery that began in mid-2013 lost steam in the summer of 2014 as the external environment became more uncertain. At the beginning of 2014, credit growth was contracting at an annual pace of more than 3%, while overall economic growth was stalling. Since the start of 2013, inflation had drifted consistently away from the ECB’s target rate of below but close to 2% over the medium term, reaching levels below 1%. Without counteracting measures, this low inflation could have turned into a deflationary spiral which would have deepened our economies’ woes considerably."
  • "However, in order to reap the full benefits of our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute much more decisively to strengthening economic growth. This depends on the policies pursued by Member States, where national parliaments have a key role to play. But it also depends on our collective ability to further strengthen the architecture of Economic and Monetary Union in a way that fully reflects the interdependence among the euro area economies. Pursuing such policies will ensure a higher growth trajectory."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.12 15:26

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Bitcoin (BTC/USD): U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2017-05-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.6%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

2017-05-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is -0.3%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From marketwatch article:

  • "U.S. stocks looked set to pull back again Friday, ahead of data on the struggling retail sector and on consumer prices, in what has largely been a losing week clouded by political worries. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YMM7 slipped 18 points to 20,852, while S&P 500 futures ESM7 dipped 3.85 points, or 0.2%, to 2,387.25 and Nasdaq-100 futures NQM7 eased 2.75 points, or 0.1%, to 5,668."
  • "The retail-sales data for April is expected to come at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast a rebound of 0.5% growth from declines in March and February. Those declines contributed to a broader slowdown in consumer spending in the first quarter, the weakest in eight years."
  • "At the same time, inflation numbers will be released. Economists expect the core consumer-price index rose 0.2%, from a 0.1% fall in March."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales and CPI news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales and CPI news events


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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales and CPI news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.13 08:06

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, May 14 - May 21 (based on the article)

EUR/USD took Macron’s victory with a stride, having priced in the election from the outset. GDP and inflation data stand out in the third week of May.


  1. French CPI (final): Tuesday, 6:45. The final read will likely confirm it.
  2. Italian GDP: Tuesday, 8:00. After 0.2% in Q4 2016, the exact same rate is predicted now.
  3. GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. A repeat is predicted.
  4. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Another upbeat number could follow: 22.3 is predicted. The all-European figure is also predicted to advance: from 26.3 to 29.1 points.
  5. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 9:00. A similar figure is on the cards now: 18.8 billion.
  6. CPI (final): Wednesday, 9:00. The preliminary inflation estimates showed a pickup in inflation in April: 1.9% on the headline and a surprisingly strong jump in core inflation at 1.2%. The final read should confirm these early assessments.
  7. German PPI: Friday, 6:00. April could see PPI picking up: +0.2%.
  8. Current Account: Friday, 8:00. It is now forecast to dip to 32.3 billion.
  9. Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00. A score of -4 was seen in April and a small rise to -3 is forecast now.

 

Here's my latest prediction for EUR/USD

EURUSD prediction May 12, 2017

prediction for EURUSD May 12, 2017

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.16 06:03

EUR/USD - Bullish ranging within narrow s/r channel (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish market condition with the ranging within 1.1017 resistance level and 1.0838 support level.

If the price breaks 1.1017 resistance on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the daily price breaks 1.0838 support on close bar so the secondary correction will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.06101; price has moved 3.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.2% lower than yesterday and 12.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.7% higher than yesterday and 27.8% higher from last week."


 

Trading Positions and Forecat Poll


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.17 07:10

EUR/USD - bullish breakout (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish breakout which was started in the end of the previous week: the price is testing 1.1097 resistance to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Retail trader data shows 29.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.43 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.06101; price has moved 3.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.2% lower than yesterday and 12.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.7% higher than yesterday and 27.8% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.18 19:47

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and range price movement 

2017-05-18 18:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech at the University of Tel Aviv. 

==========

From official report:

  • "The crisis is now behind us. The recovery in the euro area is resilient and is increasingly broad-based across countries and sectors. Domestic demand, supported by the ECB’s monetary policy, is the mainstay of that recovery. Five million more people are employed now than were in 2013, and unemployment though still too high is at an eight-year low. Worldwide, the financial sector is now more resilient. The global economic outlook is also improving, and downside risks are moderating."
  • "Values and judgement lie at the heart of all our undertakings. But they need to be supported by continuing research, ever increasing knowledge, and uncompromising examination of facts. This was true in addressing the great financial crisis, designing and implementing policies that improve the world economy and building institutions that deliver peace and prosperity in Europe. But it is also true in all the fields represented today by my fellow recipients. That is why we must be grateful to all places of knowledge, and today to the University of Tel Aviv."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event



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