Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 6

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In the pre-opening, the European markets traded lower. Political fears may once again condition investors' decisions following news that US President Donald Trump has asked former FBI Director James Comey to close the investigation to Michael Flynn, who was an advisor to the President To National Security for about a month. All of these news have heightened concerns about Donald Trump's ability to implement the announced program of measures, which includes tax reform and infrastructure spending, and has recently been one of the driving force behind stock markets.
 
Asian stock markets ended on negative territory in the face of mounting political uncertainties in the United States. The Dollar depreciated significantly against several currencies, having reached the minimum of the last six months against a set of some currencies. Despite OPEC's efforts to curb overproduction, oil prices have fallen again.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.18 13:25

FTSE 100 and the S&P 500 Turns Lower (based on the article)


"Yesterday, global stocks were shaken on political upheaval in Washington. The FTSE 100 managed to escape yesterday’s sessions relatively unscathed, but it wasn’t until the afternoon session in the U.S. (when London was closed) that the S&P 500 took another big leg lower to close near the lows of the day. We saw this spill-over into Asia overnight and Europe is under a bit of pressure at the time of this writing."


"Given the lines influence as resistance since January will it now have an important impact as support, or will we see another event like in March where it traded above for a couple of days before retreating back below? The difference between then and now and perhaps the difference-maker, is that in March the footsie started wobbling as soon as it broke above; while this time there was a clean break with momentum. A lot depends on how bad things get in the U.S. – whether it’s a short-lived reaction to turmoil surrounding the Trump administration or the beginning of a significant decline. The thinking on this end is there is at least a little more weakness in store, but not sure just yet it turns into a rout."

"Keeping it simple and consistent in approach, we’ll react to price action as per usual. On a drop into old resistance now turned potentially new support (~7400), how the market responds will be the tell. With lesser importance, the April trend-line is also in the vicinity. If buyers step in, then we may have a successful test on our hands; but drop on through, then we could see a larger decline unfold and the recent surge will have turned out to be another false breakout."


 
The opening of markets was marked by the absence of relevant corporate news, and in macroeconomic terms the agenda is also not very fulfilled. The highlight is the consumer confidence index of the Euro Zone for the month of April. According to economists, this indicator should remain relatively stable, after showing a worsening in the previous month. The decline in political uncertainty in France and the improvement in economic conditions on the basis of economic indicators should support confidence in the coming months. Remember that in recent days, political uncertainty in the US has favored the bond market.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.20 10:18

Why The 200-Day Moving Average Is A Good Worry Signal (based on the article)


  • "U.S. markets have bounced back a bit after Wednesday’s decline, but many investors are still rattled by recent developments. Although this decline does not appear to be the big one, for a number of reasons, it’s possible that markets could fall further. Should we worry about that? I don’t think so. And the following indicator is the reason why."
  • "The 200-day moving average (MA)—which is the index’s average closing price over the past 200 days—is the best indicator there is, in my opinion. There’s nothing magical about 200 days—you could use 50, 100, 400, or 63.25 for that matter—but 200 days seems to be a sweet spot between false alarms and timeliness."
  • "Right now, the 200-day MA is around 19,550 for the Dow and 2,255 for the S&P 500. These levels would represent declines of just under 8% from the Dow’s high and just over 6% from the S&P’s high. Based on where the indices are today, they’d represent about a 5% decline for both. I’d really start paying attention then, but we are nowhere close to those levels right now."


 
Political instability in Washington has influenced the decisions of American savers. According to Merrill Lynch Bank of America, in the week ending last Friday, specialized stock funds in the American market suffered redemptions of around 8900 M.USD. The main beneficiaries were the bond funds (subscriptions of 9900 M.USD) and to a lesser extent the European shareholder funds (subscriptions of 1100 M.USD).
 
European stock markets closed higher as investors reacted to the latest economic data on the euro zone in a session that began with news of another terrorist attack in the UK.
 
The Asian squares ended the session on mixed terrain. Moody's downgraded China's debt rating from "Aa3" to "A1", predicting that authorities would approve more economic stimulus. However, the agency has shifted China's "negative" outlook to "stable", since at "A1" level, "risks are balanced", highlighting the country's mechanisms to halt financial instability. Despite expecting Chinese GDP to continue to grow, Moody's ensures that the country's growth will slow in the coming years.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.24 15:19

S&P 500 Ahead Of FOMC Meeting Minutes (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging within 2400 psy resistance level and 2354 bearish reversal support level. If the price breaks 2400 to above so the next resistance at 2404 will be the key for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The 2380 level was an important one for a few weeks as the market consolidated just above it following the first round of the French elections. It held on several occasions, and when the market took a hit last week it was sliced through with ease. On Friday, the market attempted to break back above but settled out the week right at the key juncture. So far, this week that key level hasn’t been anything more than an afterthought."
  • "Yesterday, the S&P filled last week’s gap, with the next level of resistance arriving not far ahead at the record high of 2306. Should we see a push to that point or just beyond, can the market continue its recent surge, or will it be a fake-out breakout? Often times indices will breach a key level only to take the rug out from beneath those who most recently entered the market. With that in mind, entries are favored on pullbacks if conditions are right, not chasing breakouts. A rejection off the highs may shift the market lower with range-trading coming into play as general conditions become increasingly unclear. Should we see a move lower our biggest interest will be in how the 2380 level is handled. A hold, and we may see a push back towards the highs; a fold below and the market may be looking to at least probe last week’s low."
  • "Heads up: Later today, the FOMC minutes from the earlier-month meeting will be released. When the March minutes were released on April 5 the market underwent an unexpected bout of volatility. It seems unlikely we will have a redux, but traders need to be prepared regardless."


 
Asian stocks were mostly up, reflecting the publication of the Fed's minutes and investors waiting for the OPEC meeting. In China, markets ended in different directions after Moody's decision to cut the rating of the country that led the Shanghai stock exchange to the lowest level in the last 7 months was announced yesterday.
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