InstaForex Wave Analysis - page 203
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Daily analysis of USDX for August 10, 2015
On the daily chart, the USD index made a pullback. Now it's testing the support level of 97.57. On the daily chart, we can see the bullish bias could be facing a key zone which will make the USDX retest new lows on a weekly basis because the resistance level of 98.29 remains very strong against the current bullish bias the index is following.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 10, 2015
USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. With the US dollar index traded at 97.712, the greenback has failed to hold its gains made immediately after the US government reported last Friday that non-farm sector added 215K jobs in July (vs +225K expected, +223K in June). Even though the robust number suggests that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates this year, traders expect rate increases to be slow, and the US dollar's upside is limited. USD/JPY broke above its previous key support at 124.45 and remains upside. The 20-period intraday moving average is below the 50-period one, while the intraday RSI stays within the selling area between 50 and 30. So, even though a continuation of a technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. The key resistance is set at 124.45 and the first upside target at 125.25 (around last Friday's low). The second downside target is set at further support at 125.60. Technical comment: The daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is bullish, the MACD histogram bars are turned positive. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 125.25 and the second target at 125.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 124.30. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 124.10. The pivot point is at 124.45.
Resistance levels: 125.25 125.60 126
Support levels: 124.30 124.10 123.70
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USDX technical analysis for August 12, 2015
The Dollar index is testing the important short-term support level of 97. The Dollar index has made a bearish reversal towards trend line support but bulls continue to hold the upper hands. As long as price is above 97, bulls should feel safer.
Red line - resistance
Green line - support
The Dollar index has pulled back towards 97 area as expected and tested the Ichimoku cloud and the green trend line. Trend remains bullish but with some reversal signs. Bulls will be in danger if we see a daily close below 97. The double top at 98.20 is not a good sign for the next couple of weeks.
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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 13, 2015
GBP/USD remains trapped inside the range between the 1.5640 and 1.5450 levels on the daily chart, but the slightly bullish bias is still alive. However, 200 SMA on this time frame seems to be neutral and that means the pair will try to find a solid road soon in order to continue trading higher or lower, but this stage is crucial.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 14, 2015
EUR/USD: The bullish signal on the EUR/USD pair is still intact. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the Williams' % Range period 20 is not too far from the overbought region. This means there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market: the outlook is bullish.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 17 - 2015
Technical summary:
We continue to look for a b-wave rally to 1.7198 and maybe even higher to 1.7273 as the break above 1.7077 indicates that an expanded flat correction is unfolding. Therefore, we are looking for minor support in the 1.6890 - 1.6910 area for a move higher to 1.7198 before wave c lower to 1.6581 should be expected.
At this point, only a break below 1.6890 will confuse the picture, but only a break below support at 1.6756 will tell that wave c lower to 1.6581 already is developing.
Trading recommendation:
We are looking for a selling opportunity at 1.7185.
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 18, 2015
General overview for 18/08/2015 09:30 CET
The 1-1 geometry between the waves a and c purple has been missed by 3 pips, nevertheless the corrective cycle in wave a green (alt:X brown) has been completed. Currently the corrective cycle in wave b green (alt:Y brown) continues. The key level for today is the intraday resistance at the level of 1.3156. Any breakout higher would be viewed as temporary bullish.
Support/Resistance:
1.3156 - Intraday Resistance
1.3079 - Weekly Pivot
1.3058 - Intraday Support
1.2975 - WS1
Trading recommendations: Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the level of 1.3156 with tight SL (10-15 pips) and TP at the level of 1.3100.
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Technical analysis of Silver for August 19, 2015
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver had dropped lower into $14.70 levels, just below its 50-day moving average, before pulling back higher again. Besides, please note that the drop has stalled at the fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between $14.40 and $15.60 levels respectively. Furthermore, the backside of the resistance line is being tested for now. It is hence recommended to initiate long positions again with risk at $14.40 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at $14.70 levels (interim), followed by $14.40 and lower, while resistance is seen at $15.60 levels (interim), followed by $15.90, $16.40 and higher respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Initiate long positions, stop at $14.40, a target $16.40.
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Daily analysis of USDX for August 20, 2015
USDX is performing some pullbacks and extending the correction below the 96.57 level. The daily chart is still showing an alive bullish bias, but the Index seems to be prepared to extend the corrections towards new monthly lows, as the USDX reached extreme zones. 200 SMA is still bullish and MACD indicator is on the negative territory.
On H1 chart, USDX found dynamic resistance around the 200 SMA and the index is finding strong bottom at the support level of 96.37. That's why we should expect a breakout of that level, towards the 96.04 zone. We should expect a bearish trend which could last for the short and at mid term. MACD indicator remains on the negative territory.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57
Daily chart's support levels: 95.50 / 94.59
H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.37 / 97.62
H1 chart's support levels: 96.88 / 96.37
Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.37, take profit is at 96.04, and stop loss is at 96.72.
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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 21, 2015
Overview: On April 9, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was reached. This is where the ongoing bullish swing was initiated. A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29. The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800, which offered traders few valid SELL entries (depicted with red arrows). The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached. Recently, strong bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing. That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900 where the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was initiated. The level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached earlier last month due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360. However, a bullish pullback towards 1.5600 was expected to take place shortly after, as suggested in the previous articles. Our SELL entry which was suggested around 1.5600 got triggered two weeks ago. An early exit should be considered if the current daily candlestick closes above 1.5690 (the upper limit of the consolidation range) . A better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio may be offered around the price level of 1.5780 if enough bullish pressure is expressed above 1.5690 (the current price level). Note that fixation below the price zone of 1.5550-1.5500 (mid-line of the consolidation range) is mandatory to pursue towards lower bearish targets at 1.5450 and 1.5350. It confirms the Triple-Top reversal pattern depicted on the chart. On the other hand, daily fixation above 1.5690 (the upper limit of the consolidation range) hinders this bearish scenario for some time. This probably exposes the breakout projection target at 1.5800 before further bearish decline can be achieved.
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