Last week significantly changed market expectations. Hot US CPI sharply strengthened expectations of a December Fed rate hike, Treasury yields rose, and the dollar gained fresh momentum. At the same time, another shock around Nvidia intensified selling in AI and tech stocks and reinforced the broader risk-off mood. Crypto remained under pressure as spot-ETF outflows continued and long liquidations accelerated Bitcoin’s decline. Gold also suffered from the strong dollar and rising US bond yields. As a result, the dollar strengthened, while Bitcoin and gold ended the week lower. After such strong moves, the probability of technical rebounds has increased.
💶 EUR/USD
On expectations of softer CPI, the pair initially rose to 1.1251, then reversed after the report, broke 1.1100-1.1125 and fell to 1.1021 – the lowest level since April 2025. The yearly low at 1.1082 was lost: neither faster Eurozone inflation nor the ECB’s tone helped the euro, as the rate differential prevailed. Support: 1.1000, then 1.0950-1.0960 and 1.0900. Resistance: 1.1050-1.1070, then 1.1100-1.1125, 1.1160-1.1185 and 1.1225-1.1245. While below 1.1050-1.1070, the outlook is moderately bearish; below 1.1000 opens the way to 1.0900. After the sharp decline, a corrective rebound towards 1.1160-1.1185 is possible.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
The bearish scenario was confirmed: 74,800-75,200 was broken, then price fell below 70,000 and closed near 68,300. Pressure is being reinforced by six consecutive days of spot-ETF outflows and a broader retreat from tech risk. After the sharp decline, the probability of a technical rebound has increased. Support: 67,500, then 65,000-65,500 and 62,000-62,500. Resistance: 70,000-71,000, then 72,700-73,500 and 74,800-76,150. While BTC remains below 72,700-73,500, the outlook is bearish, but holding 67,500 could return price to 70,000-71,000.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent remains under pressure as the geopolitical premium around Iran and Hormuz continues to fade. After falling to 88.20, it rebounded sharply and closed near 94.55 – an important support/resistance zone. WTI reached its lowest level since early September. Support: 92.50-93.00, then 88.00-89.00 and 84.50-85.00. Resistance: 97.85-99.00, then 101.85-102.50 and 105.50-106.25. The outlook is neutral-bearish: below 92.50 could reopen the way to 88.00-89.00. While 92.50-93.00 holds, a corrective recovery towards 97.85-99.00 is possible. News around Iran and Hormuz could quickly change the picture.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold again failed to hold 4,000. After rising to 4,150, it reversed sharply amid hot CPI, a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields. The close was near 3,883, inside a strong support zone. Support: 3,870-3,900, then 3,790-3,800, 3,700-3,710 and 3,630. Resistance: 3,970-4,000, 4,060-4,080, 4,150 and 4,200. While 3,870-3,900 holds, a rebound towards 3,970-4,000 is possible. A break below 3,870 would return the advantage to sellers and open the way to 3,790-3,800.
⚠️ Key Events of the Week
16 November – Canada inflation, China data and a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh; 17 November – UK labour-market data, US retail sales and industrial production; 18 November – the week’s key event, FOMC Minutes, plus UK and Eurozone CPI; 19 November – Australian employment, Philadelphia Fed Index and US jobless claims; 20 November – Japan inflation, German PPI and UK retail sales. For oil, Hormuz and developments around Iran remain the main drivers.
📈 Likely trends: EUR/USD – moderately bearish below 1.1050-1.1070; below 1.1000 → 1.0900, with a possible corrective rebound to 1.1160-1.1185. BTC/USD – bearish below 72,700-73,500, but holding 67,500 could return price to 70,000-71,000. Brent – neutral-bearish: below 92.50 → 88.00-89.00; holding 92.50-93.00 → 97.85-99.00. Iran and Hormuz can quickly change the picture. XAU/USD – neutral-bearish; holding 3,870-3,900 may return gold to 3,970-4,000; below 3,870 → 3,790-3,800.
#Forex #Crypto #EURUSD #Bitcoin #Gold #XAUUSD #Brent #Fed #ForexForecast #Trading
