Should You Chase the London Open on Gold? 2,158 Days of XAUUSD M5 Data

When gold picks a direction in the first hour of London, it's tempting to jump in at 09:00 and ride it into New York. I wanted to know how often that pays, so I measured it on 2,158 weekdays since mid-2018.

Price at 13:00 was further in the first hour's direction than at 09:00 only 49.1% of the time. On gold, chasing the London open was a coin flip.

How I Measured It

• Data: HFM XAUUSD M5, 14 June 2018 to 6 November 2026. 2,158 weekdays with a complete set of M5 bars from 08:00 to 16:00.
• Times are London time (GMT in winter, BST in summer). The first hour is 08:00–09:00.
• First hour closes above its open: buy at 09:00. Closes below its open: sell at 09:00.
• The trade is checked at 13:00, when New York opens, and again at 16:00.
• Buys and sells are measured separately. Each one is compared with buying or selling at 09:00 on every day, so gold's long uptrend doesn't show up as an edge.
• No spread or commission.

The Result

• Up first hour, buy at 09:00: ahead at 13:00 on 51.0% of 1,150 days. Buying at 09:00 on every day: 52.0%.
• Down first hour, sell at 09:00: ahead at 13:00 on 46.8% of 1,008 days. Selling at 09:00 on every day: 48.0%.

Following the first hour did slightly worse than ignoring it, on both sides.

At 16:00 it was still close to a coin flip, though this time slightly above the every-day baseline: 52.2% for buys and 50.2% for sells, against 51.1% and 48.9%.

With a Stop at the Other End of the First Hour

A common way to chase is to put the stop at the other end of the first hour. I tested that too: entry at 09:00, stop at the first hour's low for buys or its high for sells, and close at 13:00 if the stop isn't hit.

• Buys: stopped out on 49.9% of days, closed in profit on 38.4%. Average result +$0.13 per trade.
• Sells: stopped out on 50.7% of days, closed in profit on 35.5%. Average result +$0.48 per trade.

Winners averaged $6.76 on buys and $8.63 on sells, losers $4.01 on both. Winners were bigger but fewer, so the average ended up close to zero. The median spread during the first hour in this data was $0.20, more than the average buy result.

Does a Bigger First Hour Follow Through More?

I compared each first hour with the average first-hour size of the previous 20 days and split the days into three equal groups.

• Small (under 0.51x the average): 50.4%
• Medium (0.51x to 1.16x): 50.2%
• Large (1.16x or more): 46.6%

The biggest first hours followed through the least. After large up hours, price was higher at 13:00 on 48.5% of days. After large down hours, it was lower on only 44.4%.

Does It Hold Across Years?

• First half (14 June 2018 to 25 August 2022, 1,079 days): 48.7%
• Second half (26 August 2022 to 6 November 2026, 1,079 days): 49.4%
• Above 50% in 3 of 9 years: 2019, 2022 and 2025. The best year was 2022 at 53.1%.

The large first hours came in at 46.5% in the first half and 46.6% in the second, so the fade after a big first hour shows up in both.

How I Trade the London Open

• I don't treat the first hour's direction as a signal on its own.
• After a large first hour, I won't chase at 09:00. That's the group where chasing did worst.
• On a typical day, price moved against the entry about as far as in favour. From 09:00 to 13:00, the median furthest move against the entry was $3.8 and the median furthest move in favour $3.7. Over the last 250 days (from 18 November 2025), it was $13.4 against and $12.6 in favour.

So I wait for price to pull back to a level and enter on M5 from there. On M5 I also run KIZAMI, which puts Entry, TP1, TP2 and SL on the chart with every arrow, so the stop and targets are set before I click.

My Gold Channel

On my channel I post my XAUUSD session plans and how they played out:

https://www.mql5.com/en/channels/kizami-gold

KIZAMI – Gold Scalper Signals

$39 (launch price). Signals for XAUUSD M5, each with Entry, TP1, TP2 and SL.

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/203530

Past data does not guarantee future results.