Week Ahead 19-23 October 2026: How Far the Key Releases Usually Move EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Gold
This is a measured look at the high-impact economic releases of the week of 19-23 October 2026: for each one, how far EUR/USD, USD/JPY and gold have typically moved in the 15 minutes after it, over the last 3 years. It is history, not a forecast: it tells you what a normal reaction looks like, so that stops, position size and news filters can be set with real numbers.
This week's releases and their usual 15-minute move
| UTC | JST | Release | Forecast / previous | EUR/USD (pips) | USD/JPY (pips) | Gold (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday 21 October | ||||||
| 14:30 | 23:30 | USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -4.804M / -8.557M | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.27 |
| Thursday 22 October | ||||||
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD Initial Jobless Claims | 198K / 199K | 6.0 | 10.1 | 3.71 |
Median distance between the price at the release minute and the close 15 minutes later. Pips for EUR/USD and USD/JPY, US dollars for gold. Releases that come out together at least 8 times in 10 are shown in one row and measured once.
What stands out
- EUR/USD: the largest typical move this week follows Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday 12:30 UTC): a median of 6.0 pips 15 minutes after the release, and more than 10.6 pips in one release out of four (150 releases since 2023).
- USD/JPY: the largest typical move this week follows Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday 12:30 UTC): a median of 10.1 pips 15 minutes after the release, and more than 18.1 pips in one release out of four (150 releases since 2023).
- Gold: the largest typical move this week follows Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday 12:30 UTC): a median of 3.71 US dollars 15 minutes after the release, and more than 7.67 US dollars in one release out of four (150 releases since 2023).
- Price moved the way the calendar rated the actual value (good or bad for the currency) more often than chance (binomial test, 95%) for: EUR/USD after Initial Jobless Claims (84 of 145 releases); Gold after Initial Jobless Claims (91 of 146 releases).
How the numbers are measured
- Releases and their times come from the economic calendar built into MetaTrader 5 (high importance only).
- Prices are one broker's MT5 demo feed, M1 bars where available (M5 or M15 for older dates). Your broker's numbers will differ slightly.
- The forecast and previous values are the calendar's own. Nothing on this page is a trading signal.
The figures come from News Impact Statistics, an indicator for MetaTrader 5 that measures the same on your own broker's prices and shows the usual move of the next releases on your chart.
Gotobi days this week (USD/JPY Tokyo fixing at 09:55 JST): Tuesday 20 October and Friday 23 October. Nakane USDJPY Gotobi is an Expert Advisor that trades only those mornings.
