August begins amid mixed signals from global financial markets. The main drivers were the United States – Trump’s tariff policies, the Federal Reserve’s decisions, and US labour market data. At the start of the final week of July, the dollar showed impressive strength; however, on 1 August, the euro managed to recover half of its losses. A similar pattern can be seen in gold: a drop against the dollar followed by a sharp rebound. Oil prices initially moved higher, then pulled back slightly on expectations of increased supply. Bitcoin corrected after reaching new all-time highs.
💶 EUR/USD
The euro ended the week near the 1.1587 mark, having confidently bounced on Friday, 1 August, from a local low of 1.1390. The market structure remains bullish, with quotes staying above key moving averages. At the start of the week, further upward movement toward the 1.1715-1.1800 resistance zone is likely. However, a local pullback may form in that area, with support levels at 1.1450, 1.1400, and deeper targets at 1.1345-1.1280. A confident breakout above 1.1800 would invalidate the bearish scenario and open the path to 1.2055, followed by 1.2365. The RSI indicates possible overbought conditions, but a bounce from the trendline may reignite upward momentum.
₿ BTC/USD
Bitcoin closed the week around 113,925 after a correction from its July peak of 123,256. The overall trend remains upward, though the current structure suggests a possible continuation of the correction. If the cryptocurrency breaks below the 113,000 support, the next level is expected in the 109,000-110,000 zone, from which a new growth impulse is likely – initially toward 116,500-120,000, and then possibly up to 127,600. In the medium term, and if momentum continues, the next target could be 145,000. A drop below 102,000 would undermine the bullish outlook and could lead to a decline toward 90,500. Maintaining RSI support will be an important signal for a renewed rally.
🛢️ Brent
Brent crude futures closed the week at 69.22 dollars per barrel. Despite ongoing selling pressure, a short-term rebound to the 71.40-72.65 resistance zone is possible early in the week – and possibly higher, to 74.85-75.00. However, if the price is rejected in those zones, the decline may resume with the nearest target at 67.55 and deeper levels at 62.00-59.65. Only a breakout above 80.55 would indicate the end of the current downtrend and allow for growth toward 86.00. Further movement will depend on the balance between supply and demand, including OPEC+ decisions and the market's reaction to Trump’s tariff conflicts.
🪙 XAU/USD
Gold ended the week at 3,363 dollars per ounce, returning to the central part of the sideways range between 3,255 and 3,440. A small correction toward 3,315 is possible early in the week, but any pullbacks are likely to be used for buying, with subsequent movement toward the 3,400–3,440 area. If bullish sentiment strengthens, the market may aim to update the high at 3,500. A drop below 3,075 would weaken the technical outlook and open the path to 2,955.
📊 Conclusion
In the coming days, investors are expected to remain cautiously optimistic. Moderate corrections are likely to be followed by a return to dominant trends – unless major fundamental shifts occur. The euro may pull back before resuming growth, bitcoin is near key support at 110,000, oil remains weak despite a potential short-term rebound, and gold continues to benefit from global uncertainty and rising risks.
Special attention will be focused on the US-China negotiations on 4 August regarding the extension of the tariff truce. On Wednesday, the Bank of England is expected to decide on interest rates, with the first of two potential cuts on the table. Also in focus are PMI data from several countries, eurozone inflation figures, and retail sales. Alongside US corporate earnings, all of this could set the tone for markets.
