(14 AUGUST 2020)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:Not enough demand for US 30y bond

(14 AUGUST 2020)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:Not enough demand for US 30y bond

14 August 2020, 09:29
Jiming Huang

Virus update. Germany reported the highest jump in Covid cases in three months, while cases in France, Greece and Spain continued surging as a result of relaxed confinement measures, and perhaps the crowded summer destinations where light measures as the obligation to wear masks and social distancing are hard to implement in outdoor places and merely respected.

For investors, the rising infections will likely become an issue if governments reimplement stricter quarantine measures that could hit the economic activity, otherwise the cheap liquidity should continue feeding into stock prices.

Gold consolidates gains near $1950 per oz. Higher US yields and firmer US dollar could limit the appetite in the short run, however, the rising inflationary pressures in the US and the uncertain market sentiment should keep the medium-term gold demand intact and provide support to the gold market. The positive trend building since March should remain in place above $1845 per oz, the major 38.2% retracement on March – August rally.

Demand in WTI crude remained solid after the IEA cut its forecast for global oil demand, insisting on the worsening outlook for jet fuel consumption. The rising Covid cases globally will likely keep passengers grounded for an extended period and continue weighing on demand. On the supply side, we should soon start seeing critics emerge against the OPEC’s decision to trim the production cuts prematurely. For now, the price of a barrel is steady near the 200-day moving average ($42.90), but there is a reduced potential for a sustainable advance above this level.

By Ipek Ozkardeskaya

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