The US economy is firing on all cylinders with net exports above expectations, which defies the backdrop of protectionism. Q2 GDP growth could hit 4.5% annualised; new jobs may top 200.000 t as well. 10-year T-Bills fell to 2.88% (further flattening the curve), which should slow the progression of the USD higher, but a fourth rate hike for 2018 might be on its way. It would be interesting if there were any conversation over global trade outlook.
President Trump’s latest tweet-storm is to demand that OPEC increase crude oil output by 1-2 million barrel/day. Friday could bring additional Trump tariffs, and retaliation from the Chinese. Global growth remains firm, but there is a feeling that the world’s ability to shrug off attacks on trade might becoming less effective. Weakness in CNY and Chinese equities highlight this. Capital outflows from China have accelerated. With Asia nations extremely exposed to higher oil prices (alongside weaker commodity demand), stronger US interest rates, fear of stagflation and protectionism, currencies should under perform.
The Mexican landside of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has not provided a big MXN boost. The peso had been trading on political uncertainty prior to Sunday but moving forward it will be driven by NAFTA. The AMLO-Trump relationship is totally untested. Given Trump’s nature to be kinder to friends, relations between the two will be critical. We remain bearish on MXN in the current uncertain risk off environment.
By Peter Rosenstreich
