France: Elections. What investors must know.

France: Elections. What investors must know.

27 April 2017, 06:42
Aleksei Kotlovanov

After the first tour of elections in France Macron and Le Pen are the leaders for the final battle on the 7th May. The result of the French presidential elections may determine the fate of the Europian Union. 

After the preliminary election results and expectations about Macrons victory, the EUR reached the top positions after 5 months. Now the difference between bond yield of Germany and France, which was constantly growing during last time, decreased to 0,75%. Foreign investors started to look closely to European stocks on the background of weak foresights of American stock market. And the prospect of Macron’s victory may strengthen this interest. 

Bulls are sure that Macron will win. The research shows that on the second tour Macron is leading by far. It is expected the Macron will get all the votes of those who did not vote for her in the first tour. 

After the surprising Brexit in UK and Trump’s presidency, we cannot preclude the possibility of the unexpected result. There is an opinion, that after the terrorist attack last week in Paris may give more votes to Le Pen. 

Investors are already greeting Macron as a new president of France. The current situation looks like the economic mainstream again will win. Both main French parties of republicans and socialists  lost the elections. But we have to remember, that Macron is not a classical candidate with his political party “En Marche!”, which has no strong regional body, neither has Le Pen. And after the parliament elections in June the president will have to work with the classic parties concerning lawmaking and that may bring France to the political gridlock.
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