EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 09.10 - 16.10: ranging on reversal

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.08 09:07

Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 09 - October 16 (based on the article)

German ZEW Economic Sentiment, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, UK Rate decision, US Unemployment Claims, US Crude Oil Inventories, US Consumer Sentiment and Janet Yellen’s speech; These are the main events on forex calendar.

• German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic sentiment is expected to improve to 4.2.
• US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00.
  
• UK Rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The MPC expect a boost in growth during 2017 if the present economic momentum continues.
• US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to reach 252,000 this week.
• US Crude Oil Inventories: Thursday, 15:00.
  
• US Retail sales: Friday, 12:30. Retail sales is expected to gain 0.6%, while core sakes are predicted to rise 0.4%.
• US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence is expected to climb to 92.1 this
• Janet Yellen speaks: Friday, 17:30. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a talk in Boston’s Annual Research Conference. She will talk about the US economic recovery and may give further clues regarding the expected rate hike timetable. Market volatility is expected.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 14:36

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: NFIB Small Business Index

2016-10-11 10:00 GMT | [USD - NFIB Small Business Index]

• past data is 94.4
• forecast data is 95.2
• actual data is 94.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - NFIB Small Business Index] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed small businesses.

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From 247 wallst article: Small Business Optimism Slips Again in September

"Clearly the stock market loves the Fed, but bloated stock values are not real productive wealth which is created by real investment in plant, equipment, research and infrastructure, weak in this recovery. Even housing with low mortgage rates has not performed up to expectation based on demographics. It has not occurred to the Fed that what meager growth we have had has occurred in spite of government policy, not because of it. The private sector continues to perform poorly in light of the barriers that governments at all levels throw up in its path."

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EUR/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events

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USD/CAD M5: 29 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:28

Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)

2016-10-12 12:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] = Speech at the Fireside Chat with the Business Council of New York, in Albany.

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New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: "Dudley speaks on the economy. Based on his recent speeches, we think he is now of the view that, from a risk-management perspective, accommodation should be removed cautiously given the lack of scope to lower rates in the event of an economic downturn."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:54

Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)

2016-10-12 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

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FOMC minutes: "Given the three dissents in favor of a rate hike at the FOMC’s September meeting, we expect the minutes to reveal widening divisions within the committee over the appropriate stance of policy. On one side are those who believe a rate hike in September would have been warranted given that the economy is operating near mandate-consistent levels and mediumterm risks are rising. These concerns were expressed by regional Fed presidents Rosengren, Mester, and George in remarks leading up to, and following, the meeting. On the other side are those FOMC members, primarily within the Board, who point to a slower removal of labor market slack, via trends in participation and other variables, and a lack of evidence that inflation or financial instability are rising, as supporting a further delay in policy normalization."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 11:11

EUR/USD Rebounds From Weekly Lows (based on the article)

Daily price was on the breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price was bounced from one week low at 1.0985 to above for the ranging bearish condition to be started:

"The EUR/USD is beginning to pair losses after closing lower for 3 consecutive sessions and declining as much as 219 pips for the week. The current daily low for the EUR/SUD resides at 1.0985, but technical traders will continue to monitor the psychological 1.1000 level going into tomorrow’s University of Michigan’s Confidence figures and Janet Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed conference. Both of these events are marked as high importance events, with both having the ability to shift the direction of the EUR/USD."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 15:27

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and NZD/USD: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

2016-10-14 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.7%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From MarketWatch article: U.S. retail sales snap back in September

"Sales at U.S. retail stores rebounded in September, with auto dealers and gas stations racking up the biggest gains, in a sign consumers are still spending fast enough to keep the economy on solid ground. Retail sales rose 0.6% last month to snap back from a small decline in August that was the first in five months. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.7% increase."

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EUR/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

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USD/CAD M5: 23 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

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NZD/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 20:20

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and DAX Index: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank

2016-10-14 17:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks] = Speech named "Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Annual Research Conference.

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From Bloomberg article: Yellen Sees ‘Plausible Ways’ Hot Economy Could Heal Growth

• "Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said there are “plausible ways” that running the U.S. economy hot for a while could fix some of the damage caused to growth trends by the Great Recession."
• "Increased business sales would almost certainly raise the productive capacity of the economy by encouraging additional capital spending,” Yellen said Friday in the text of a speech to a Boston Fed conference on the elusive economic recovery. “A tight labor market might draw in potential workers who would otherwise sit on the sidelines."
• "Yellen pondered whether a “high-pressure economy” could reverse some of the damage done in the recession, including declines in research spending and labor force participation. In effect, that has been the Federal Open Market Committee’s bet this year, though Yellen cautioned that running a low-rate policy for too long “could have costs that exceed the benefits” by increasing financial risk or inflation."
  

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EUR/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events

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DAX Index M5 price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events