8 July 2016, 10:56
Vasilii Apostolidi

UR/USD: Bearish: Room to extend lower but 1.0820 is a major support.

It has been two weeks since Brexit and EUR is still trading well within the 1.0909/1.1432 range registered on that day. Despite overall bearish indications, this pair has not made much headway on the downside and time is not in the favor for those who are bearish. That said, only a break of 1.1210 would indicate the start of stronger rebound (a breach of 1.1150 would be a pre-indication that a short-term low is forming). Ideal target is at 1.0820 but at this stage, we would be glad with a retest of the 1.0909 low.

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GBP/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at 1.2700.

As highlighted yesterday, the current weakness is overextended and we are seeing further signs that downward momentum is slowing. Those who are shorts should continue to look to take profit on any dip to 1.2700 (1.2740 is already a strong short-term support). Stop-loss on shorts should remain unchanged at 1.3150 for now.

AUD/USD: Bullish: Target 0.7600 followed by 0.7650.

There is no change to the bullish AUD view as we continue to anticipate a move to the immediate target at 0.7600. However, in order to maintain the current bullish impetus, AUD has to break above the short-term 0.7560 resistance within these 1 to 2 days as a prolonged consolidation below this level would lead to a rapid loss in momentum.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7020/0.7240 range.

We just shifted to a neutral stance yesterday there is no change to the view. However, the rapid swing higher is already approaching the top end of our expected sideway range of 0.7240. A move beyond this level would not be surprising but only a clear break above 0.7280 would indicate a retest of the post-Brexit high of 0.7305.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Room to retest 99.05/10.

The downward pressure is still on the downside and as indicated yesterday, a retest of the post-Brexit low of 99.05/10 would not be surprising. That said, downward momentum is patchy at best and a sustained break below 99.05/10 seems unlikely. Only move back above 101.60 would indicate that the downward pressure has eased.

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