EUR/USD: Bearish: Room to extend lower but 1.0820 is a major support.
There is no change to the bearish EUR view; the current movement is viewed as a short-term consolidation phase which should lead to further EUR weakness towards 1.0820 in the coming days
GBP/USD: Bearish: A move to 1.3000 would not be surprising.
The short-term GBP strength is viewed as a corrective rebound and it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. Trading is expected to remain volatile but at this stage, we do not see GBP moving back above the stop-loss for our bearish view at 1.3785.
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This level is expected to move lower if the current volatility abates further. Target remains unchanged at 1.3000 even though Monday’s low of 1.3120/25 is acting as a strong intermediate support.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Expect choppy trading between 0.7305/0.7510. [No change in view]
While the pull-back from last Friday’s 0.7650 peak is picking up momentum, only a drop below 0.7305 support would indicate a sustained AUD weakness in the coming days. For now, we hold a neutral view and expect this pair to trade within 0.7305/0.7510 range. That said, downward pressure would continue to increase unless there is a move back above 0.7510 within these few days.
NZF/USD: Neutral: In a broad 0.6975/0.7170 range. [No change in view]
Similar to AUD/USD, the pull-back from last Friday’s 0.7305 high is picking up momentum but only a clear break below 0.6975 would indicate that NZD is ready to head lower towards 0.6920 and beyond. In the meanwhile, we hold a neutral view but unless this pair can reclaim 0.7170, the downside risk would continue to increase.
USD/JPY: Neutral: In a broad 100.00/105.00 range.
There is not much to add as the near-term outlook is still unclear after the outsized range last Friday. For now, it seems hat 100.00/105.00 should be enough to contain the short-term market volatility for the next several days.