Forex Weekly Outlook June 27-July 1

25 June 2016, 18:38
Sherif Hasan

The Brexit decision had huge market implications with a crash for the pound, falls for other risk currencies and gains for the dollar and the yen. Apart from the Brexit aftershocks, we have US and Canadian GDP data, US Consumer Confidence and other events. These are the major events on forex calendar. Join us as we explore the market movers for his week.

Britons voted to leave the European Union, inflicting a serious blow on the EU and international order. Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation, the pound crushed, falling more than 10% against the dollar, posting its biggest one-day fall in history. Following these dramatic events, European shares plummeted more than 8%, their biggest ever one-day fall. The Brexit could cost Britain their access to the EU’s trade barrier-free single market forcing them to seek new markets around the world. Moreover, this departure will cost the EU around a sixth of its economic output and may lead to further departures of other EU member states. Will these dire predictions materialize? Let’s start,

  1. US GDP( final Q1): Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. economic growth was upgraded to 0.8% in the second release for Q1. This is an annualized figure and it’s weak. Another small upgrade to 1% is on the cards, and this still leaves growth lower than Q4 2015. Q2 looks much better but the future is uncertain with Brexit.
  2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined to 92.6 in May, following 94.7 in April, falling short of estimates. This was the second straight month of declines. Analysts expected a reading of 96.1. Recent economic data suggest stronger growth in the second quarter boosted by consumer spending. Economists are not certain about the outlook for consumer spending in the coming months, but there isn’t any evidence for slowing in consumption growth. Consumer confidence is expected to improve to 93.2 this time.
  3. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. Crude oil inventories declined 0.9 million barrels in the June, reaching 530.6 million. This was the fifth consecutive drop. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories increased, 0.6 million barrels in the week, as well as distillate fuel rising 0.2 million barrels. On a yearly base, crude oil stocks are 14.6% higher than they were a year ago, while gasoline stocks edged up 8.8% and distillate fuel up 12.5%. Demand for gasoline is rising and is 3.9% stronger than in the previous year.
  4. Canadian GDP data: Thursday, 12:30. The Canadian economy contracted in March for the second consecutive month, declining 0.2%. The weak growth in the first quarter raised concerns over the pace of growth in the second quarter. On a yearly base, GDP expanded 2.4% in the first quarter. The contraction in March was mainly due to a decline in the mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction sector, falling 2.8% following a 0.6% per cent decline in February. The Bank of Canada is not expected to raise rates until 2018 and will issue a full outlook for the economy and inflation in its next monetary policy report on July 13. Canadian GDP for April is forecasted to rise 0.1%.
  5. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined last week to near a 43-year low of 259,000, suggesting the employment market remains resilient despite a slowdown in hiring during May. Economists had forecasted a rise of 271,000. Claims have remained below the 300,000 threshold for 68 straight weeks, the longest streak since 1973. The four-week moving average of claims, considered less volatile, fell 2,250 to 267,000 last week. The number of new claims is expected to reach 269,000 this week.
  6. Chinese PMIs: Friday, 1:00 for the official one and 1:45 for the independent Caixin one. China is the world’s second largest economy and it picked up the economic baton after 2008. However, the country is in transition and the re-balancing is moving slowly. These figures are eyed for global growth. The official government one is expected to tick down from 50.1 to 50 – which is the balance between growth and contraction. The Caixin manufacturing PMI already looks worse: a minor rise from 47.8 to 47.9 is on the cards.
  7. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity according to the Institute for Supply Management improved in May to 51.3 from 50.8 in April. Economists expected the index to decline slightly to 50.5, fearing the index might decline below the 50 point line due to the slowdown in U.S. economic growth and global economy. Manufacturing  PMI is expected to climb to 51.6 in June.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

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