Euro Returns to 1.12 Before ECB Convenes - Alpari
As the ECB meeting approaches the euro lifted to 1.12. The price returned back to 1.1150 twice during the American session after stats came out. However, the high demand for the euro in the crosses allowed the euro bulls to win back of the losses from the news.
The preliminary data from ISM showed a May growth. The index for business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM rose to 51.3 (forecasted 50.4, previous: 50.8)
The buyers received a powerful support from the euro/pound cross rate. The results from the most recent Brexit poll piled pressure on the pound. The pound/dollar crumbled to a 1.4385 minimum. Judging by the pound sales throughout the market, market participants are anxious that the UK could leave the EU. I think that the surveys are to manipulate the markets and earn money from this.
In Asia the euro jumped to 1.1213 for a short while The bull impulse didn't receive a continuation. The pair is currently correcting. On Wednesday the buyers overcame two important levels – 1.1156 (trend line) and 1.1185 (resistance). A break is marked out on the graphs with circles. These are bull signals.
Traders are waiting for the results of the ECB meeting and Draghi's speech. He will present reassessed forecasts for economic growth and inflation. Mario Draghi always has a strong effect on the euro/dollar rate. He can send the rate 400 points up, just as he can send it 400 points down. His speech could increase your deposit or take it to zero. Since the technical signals are useless because of the fundamental ones, today my review is without a forecast.
Day's News (EET):
11:30, UK PMI in construction sector for May;
12:00, Eurozone April producer price index;
14:45, ECB interest rate decision;
15:15, US May employment changes (excluding agriculture) according to ADP;
15:30, Mario Draghi holds a press conference, US initial unemployment benefit applications for the week ending 29th May;
15:35, FOMC member Powell to speak;
18:00, US oil reserve changes; OPEC summit.
Intraday forecast: minimum: n/a, maximum: n/a, close: n/a.
The euro/dollar broke two important levels. The break is marked out on the graph. After a break in the trend line, the euro strengthened to 1.1213 with support from the crosses. The growth in the pair slowed by the resistance line which runs through the maximums. A triangle shows the important limits on the graph. A support runs through 1.1189 along the lower limit.
Taking into account the fact that the euro is overbought against the pound (trading by the U3 line of the MA channel), it's highly probable that we'll see a downward correction for this cross.
During Draghi's speech a lot of volatility is expected. The range of fluctuations for the euro/dollar could be from 100 to 200 points. The US on Friday will publish its labour market report. Due to external factors, Thursday and Friday are risky days to trade.