EUR/USD Still Below 20 DMA, awaits Next Catalysts

EUR/USD Still Below 20 DMA, awaits Next Catalysts

17 May 2016, 18:34
Roberto Jacobs

EUR/USD Still Below 20 DMA, awaits Next Catalysts

EUR/USD remains better bid, despite the US CPI data that builds a case for a June hike from the Fed.

EUR/USD recovered to 1.1348 highs earlier on the US opening spike from 1.1311, but has since drifted sideways after a little profit taking. Initially, EUR/USD was offered after US CPI that came in above expectations for April with headline CPI up 0.4% MoM vs. 0.3% forecasted while the headline CPI gained 1.1%, up from March's 0.9%.

At the same time building permits and housing starts were mixed at 1.116M and 1.172M in April. We now await Fed Williams and Lockhart, both non voters and neutral who were scheduled at 17.25 GMT. nothing at time of writing from them so far but Atlanta Fed are reported to now forecast US GDP at 2.55 vs 2.8% previous. We will get the Fed minutes tomorrow as next major catlyst for the greenback as well as Euro-zone CPI reading in the European shift prior to the FOMC minutes.

EUR/USD levels

EUR/USD is making a minor recovery since sliding from the 200 sma on the 1hr chart from 1.1446 on 11th May business. That 200 sma has since headed to 1.1374 and comes as next resistance through the 100 sma at 1.1354/65 20 dma. Advances past there would seek out a break of 1.1376, 10th Feb high and 1.1429/46, 11th and 10th May highs before the psychological 1.15 handle and ascending resistance at 1.1620. To the downside, the 1.1279 55 day ma is key.

"We look for losses to the 1.1216 April trough. Further down lurks the 1.1144 24th March low and the 1.1060/58 December high and the March 16 low," explained analysts at Commerzbank.


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