FxWirePro: AUD/USD Downside Pauses Above 38.2% Fib, Further Weakness on Breaks Below

FxWirePro: AUD/USD Downside Pauses Above 38.2% Fib, Further Weakness on Breaks Below

4 May 2016, 08:22
Roberto Jacobs
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FxWirePro: AUD/USD Downside Pauses Above 38.2% Fib, Further Weakness on Breaks Below

  • AUD/USD downside stalls just shy of 38.2% Fib of Jan to April rise at 0.7450, further downside can be seen only on breaks below. 
  • The pair has come under strong selling pressure following the somewhat surprising 25bp rate cut by the RBA on Tuesday to a new record low interest rate of 1.75%. 
  • Also, CFTC futures data in the last few weeks showed massive AUD long commitment among asset managers which are being squared post policy meet, adding to the downside. 
  • Technicals on daily charts are biased lower. Break below 38.2% Fib can see test of 0.7415, 0.74 and then 0.7340 (weekly cloud base). 
  • The pair has edged above daily cloud top at 0.7486 and finds immediate resistance at 0.7560 (trendline).

Recommendation: Go short on breaks below 0.7450, target 0.7410/0.7340 

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