28 April 2016, 12:30
Vasilii Apostolidi

EUR/USD: Neutral: Likely in 1.1200/1.1400 range.

We just turned neutral on EUR yesterday and there is no change to the view. We continue to expect this pair to trade between 1.1200 and 1.1400 for now.

Looking further ahead, the odds for a break above 1.1400 appear to be higher than a break below 1.1200.


GBP/USD: Bullish: Take partial profit at 1.4670.

As mentioned in the 24-hour view update, the recent upward pressure has eased and the current movement is likely a short-term consolidation phase (before further up-move can be expected). Stop-loss remains unchanged at 1.4420 even though 1.4470 is already a strong support.

Target is at 1.4670 and those who are long should consider taking partial profit at this level.

AUD/USD: Shift from neutral to bearish: Pull-back to extend lower to 0.7475/0.7520.

On a daily closing basis, AUD ended lower by 164 pips yesterday, the largest single day drop since June 2013. Such big moves are clearly not common and could presage further decline in AUD in the days ahead. From a technical perspective, the rally that started from the January’s low of 0.6825/30 appears to have topped out at 0.7835. The current weakness is viewed as a corrective pull-back that has scope to extend lower to test the major support zone near 0.7475/0.7520 (just above the 38.2% retracement of the 0.6825 - 0.7835 rally which is at 0.7450).

The key resistance is obviously at yesterday’s peak of 0.7765 but in order to maintain the current momentum, any rebound should not move above 0.7690. In other words, the outlook for AUD in the next 1 to 3 weeks is deemed as bearish. Immediate objective is for a move to the 0.7475/0.7520 support zone.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6800/0.7000 range. The strong rebound from the low 0.6808 just before RBNZ’s announcement earlier suggests that the short-term downward pressure has eased (pull-back did not reach our objective of 0.6765).

From here, the outlook is still neutral but we expect this pair to trade within a broad 0.6800/0.7000 range.

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