AUD: Employment Data Consistent with Macros – Deutsche Bank
Research Team at Deutsche Bank, notes that the Australia’s employment
rose 26.1k in March after a soft end to 2015 and start to 2016.
“That prior softness sees trend jobs growth (as estimated by the ABS) at 7.7k, weaker than our labour market tracker which suggests around 13k jobs growth; while a model based estimate of employment shows much weaker jobs growth in Q1-2016 than GDP or real wages growth would suggest (after the reverse in Q4-2015).
The unemployment rate fell to 5.7%; while across employment growth, hours worked, the change in the unemployment rate and the full-time / part-time split the labour force survey has been running roughly consistent with the NAB survey over the past year.
Given the strong correlation between employment growth and the participation rate, employment growth likely needs to average a little less than ~12.5k a month to put upward pressure on the unemployment rate. In our view, this data is consistent with no change to the cash rate in May.”