13 April 2016, 12:22
Vasilii Apostolidi

EUR/USD: Neutral: Likely in a broad 1.1330/1.1495 range.

The short-term EUR strength touched a fresh high of 1.1464 but did not threaten the key resistance at 1.1495. While the upward pressure has eased with the sharp pull-back from the high, it is still too early to expect a sustained down-move.

That said, short-term risk is tilted to the downside now and the odds for a move below 1.1325/30 is clearly higher than a move back above 1.1464. The next support below 1.1325/30 is at 1.1280.

GBP/USD: Neutral: A move higher to test 1.4380/1.4450 would not be surprising.


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We turned neutral yesterday but were of the view that the prevalent rebound in GBP has room to extend higher to test 1.4380 and 1.4450. GBP rose quickly and touched a high of 1.4348 before easing off.

As highlighted yesterday, as long 1.4105/10 is not taken out in these few days, we will continue to expect GBP to move higher.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Break above 0.7725/50 would indicate resumption of bullish trend. 

AUD touched a low of 0.7490 late last week and the subsequent up-move from the bottom has been more rapid and resilient than expected. While short-term upward momentum has improved considerably, only a clear break above the strong 0.7725/50 resistance zone would indicate the resumption of the bullish trend.

In the meanwhile, this pair is expected remain underpinned and the upward pressure will continue to increase unless there is a move back below 0.7580/85 in the next 1 to 2 days.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Break above 0.6965/70 would shift outlook to bullish.

Similar to AUD/USD, while upward pressure is increasing rapidly, NZD has to move clearly above the major 0.6965/70 resistance to indicate the start of a bullish phase.

This appears to be likely scenario unless there is a move back below 0.6870 in the next few days.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Decreased odds for extension lower.

As highlighted in recent updates, while the next significant support is much lower at 106.50, the recent rapid and extended sharp drop in USD suggest low odds for extension lower. That said, confirmation that the current bearish phase has ended is only upon a break above 109.60.

In the meanwhile, USD has to move back below the recent 107.60/65 low in the next few days or the downward pressure will continue to ease. 

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