The main data release this week will be the March non-farm payrolls report on Friday where BNP Paribas expects the Easter effect to have a negative impact on the headline figure.
"We see the pace of hiring slowing to 180k from 242k in February, a flat unemployment rate at 4.9% and a trend-consistent 0.2% m/m gain in average hourly earnings.
Both the manufacturing and services ISM reports will be released after the jobs data this month, so the only advance hint on the numbers will come from the ADP survey on Wednesday. Given the recent softness in the business and personal spending data our US economists are now tracking meagre GDP growth of 0.8% q/q in Q1, supporting their view that the Fed will be in no position to hike rates," BNPP projects.
"We remain sceptical of the USD’s recent gains, particularly against G10 current account surplus currencies and continue to expect EURUSD to climb to 1.16 by Q2," BNPP adds.
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