Research Team at Nomura, notes that the US university of Michigan consumer sentiment in the preliminary reading declined modestly to 90.0 from 91.7 as consumers raised concerns about “prospects for the economy as well as the expectation that gas prices would inch upward.”
“Although the sentiment index has edged lower the last four months, it still remains at a relatively high level. Consensus expects the index to recover some of decline in the final reading, inching up to 90.7.
As for inflation expectations, the 5- to 10-year ahead measure rose to 2.7% from 2.5% in the preliminary report, a positive sign that long run inflation expectations maybe edging higher to normal levels. Although households are asked about “long-term” inflation expectations, their responses could have reflected changes in visible prices that they see on a daily basis such as gas prices. This could have biased the long-term inflation expectations index. We will see if this measure can hold up at these levels and show that the previous decline was transitory.”
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