23 March 2016, 10:58
Vasilii Apostolidi

EUR/USD: Change to Neutral: Bullish phase ended, in a broad 1.1120/1.1375 range now.

The break below 1.1200 yesterday was not surprising and indicates that the bullish EUR phase that started on the 11 Mar has ended. While further EUR strength is still expected further out, this is likely only after a period of consolidation.

In other words, the outlook for the next couple weeks is viewed as neutral and we expect this pair to trade within a broad 1.1120/1.1375 range.

GBP/USD: Change to Neutral: Likely in a broad 1.4050/1.4400 range.

The break below the 1.4350 stop-loss resulted in a sharp drop to a low of 1.4191. The up-move that started from the low of 1.4053 last week has topped out at 1.4514, much sooner than expected and short of our 1.4570 target. Despite the sharp drop, we are not convinced that the current weakness is a resumption of the bearish trend in GBP.

The current movement is viewed as part of a broad sideway consolidation range and further choppy can be expected in the next couple of weeks, likely holding between 1.4050 and 1.4400 (bias is for a probe lower towards 1.4050).

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AUD/USD: Bullish: Target 0.7740.

There is no change to the current bullish AUD view and we continue to target a move to 0.7740. That said, the current short-term consolidation phase appears incomplete and this pair may trade sideways for another 1 to 2 days more.

Only a clear and clean break above 0.7680 would indicate that the next leg higher has started. 

NZD/USD: Neutral: Back into a broad 0.6650/0.6900 consolidation range.

We just shifted to neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. The recent attempt to break higher has failed and NZD has likely moved back into a broad sideway range between 0.6650 and 0.6900.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Bearish for 110.00.

The rebound from the low of 110.65 has been more resilient than expected but as long as 113.00 is intact, another leg lower to 110.00 is still a possibility but we must admit that the odds have diminished and will continue to diminish if the current short-term consolidation were to persist.

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