Weekly economic outlook Nov 23-27

Weekly economic outlook Nov 23-27

23 November 2015, 09:08

The upcoming week is expected to be less busy, than the previous one with the U.S. markets closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and Friday being a half day. Tokyo is closed Monday for a national holiday. Nevertheless, the week will feature important economic reports, such as nations' manufacturing activity or GDPs.

Fed head Janet Yellen highlighted that interest rates will be increased if the economic data does not turn to worse. Moreover, it is the last week before the ECB policy meeting on Thursday, December 3rd when the policymakers plan to “do what they must to raise inflation rate as quickly as possible” as ECB president Draghi said at his speech on Friday.

ECB officials are considering to expand the 1.1 trillion euro QE program that started eight months ago or take other measures such as cut deposit rate further below zero.

Monday, November 23

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Euro area, Germany, France and the U.S. are to release PMIs. In Germany, the performance of the services sector is expected to have decreased slightly as well as in the eurozone, while the no change is expected in the manufacturing sector. In the U.S., Markit manufacturing is predicted to decline slightly, in November, to 54.0 from 54.1 before.

The U.S. will also issue private sector data on existing home sales which are expected to have slowed down marginally to 5.44M from 5.55M before.

Tuesday, November 24

The RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has a speech which is likely to affect the Australian dollar.

Switzerland is to publish data on the employment level.

The German the final GDP for Q3 will be released, and it is expected to be stable at 1.8%.

The German IFO Survey will be out as well, with all of its three indicators, current assessment, business climate and expectations anticipated to have deteriorated in November.

The U.S. is to release revised data on third quarter growth, as well as a report on the trade balance and data on consumer confidence. The world's largest economy is expected to show a greater expansion of 2% from 1.5% the first preliminary figure. If such a number comes out, the odds for December’s rate hike will jump.

The flash personal consumption expenditures prices growth for Q3 will also be out. November’s consumer confidence is likely to have risen to 99.5 from 97.6 before as the U.S. central bank is approaching a rate hike.

The Bank of Canada is to post its quarterly review.

Wednesday, November 25

The Bank of Japan is to release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving market players an insight into how officials see the economy and their policy options.

Japanese leading economic index for September will be out as well.

No significant data is expected in the euro area, with all eyes now turning to the U.S.

The U.S. is to issue a string of reports, including data on durable goods orders, personal spending, new homes sales and consumer sentiment and a report on initial jobless claims, which is being released one day earlier than usual, because of the Thanksgiving holiday.

In the U.S., personal spending and personal income are expected to rise up to 0.3% from 0.1% and 0.4% from 0.1% respectively. Durable goods are forecast to have increased by 1.3% from a slowdown of -1.2% before. The preliminary Markit Services PMI for November is predicted to advance up to 55.0 from 54.8 the previous month.

New Zealand is to produce data on the trade balance.

Thursday, November 26

Australia is to release a report on private capital spending.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, thus less volatility is expected.

Friday, November 27

Japan is to report on household spending, inflation and retail sales.

The U.K. is to issue revised data on third quarter economic growth. The market consensus wants GDP to advance by 0.5% as the first estimate.

In the euro zone, Spain is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation.

Canada is to terminate the week with data on raw material price inflation.