Economic outlook August 3-7: main events & macrostatistics

Economic outlook August 3-7: main events & macrostatistics

3 August 2015, 10:09
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This week’s most awaited reports include non-farm payroll data, U.S. core PCE, BOJ, RBA and BOE rate decisions, U.S. factory orders, U.K. manufacturing production, China’s CPI,  U.S. manufacturing PMI, China’s CPI, and German factory orders.

Now, let us have a closer look at what other data market participants will keep in focus this week:

Monday, August 3rd

09:30 (GMT, here and further) – U.K. Manufacturing PMI: back in June, the country’s manufacturing index slid to 51.4 – market expectations are that in July the PMI edged up to 51.6;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is a significant indicator the FOMC follows to examine the changes in U.S. inflation.

In the recent report, the PCE index rose by 0.9% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) climbed 0.1%. The estimates are for the core PCE to inch up again by 0.1% and PCE by 0.2%;

15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI for July. In June, the index rose again to 53.5 - which means the manufacturing is rising at a faster rate than in previous month’s estimates; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets. Economists expect this index to climb to 53.6;

Tuesday, August 4th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the last report, the volume of retail trade climbed by 0.3%;

01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: The previous numbers showed that the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services contracted to 2.75 billion Australian dollars; the monthly update will also present the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold;

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last time, RBA kept its cash rate flat at 2%. It also expected that the RBA were to keep rates unchanged this time as well. But RBA could still surprise and cut the rate considering the uncertainty China’s economic outlook;

15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders for July: In the latest report regarding June factory orders fell by 1%; current projections are for a 1.8% bounce in July;

Wednesday, August 5th

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for July 2015 that will be published on Friday;

13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last update, the deficit in the trade balance expanded to $3.3 billion;

13:30 – American Trade Balance: This monthly numbers for June will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous U.S. trade balance update for May, the goods and services deficit expanded to $41.9 billion; current projections are for the deficit to rise again to $42.6 billion;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July: In the last update for June, this index edged up to 56 — the non-manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace compared to the previous month; current expectations are for the PMI to jump to 56.4;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will issue its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 31st;

Thursday, August 6th

02:30 – Australia's Employment Update: In the last report regarding June 2015 the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) modestly rose by 7.3K people. This report may move the Australian dollar;

08:00 – Germany's Factory Orders: In the recent report, factory orders slipped by 0.2% during June; currently, the market expectations are for a modest gain of 0.4% July;

09:30 – U.K. Manufacturing Production for June: In the last report regarding May 2015 the index fell again by 0.6%; this time, the estimates are for 0.2% gain;

10:30 – BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation forecast for 2015and 2016;

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: The regulator isn’t expected to change its policy at this point;

12:45 – BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor will hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the inflation report, in London;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report (which will refer to the week ending on July 31st): In the previous report, jobless claims rose to 267K; the expectations are for this number to remain virtually unchanged at 269K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 31st;

Friday, August 7th

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will release its quarterly report on its monetary policy;

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and decide if it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update for June 2015, unemployment remained flat at 6.8% while the employment dipped by 6.4K;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the last employment report regarding June 2015, the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 223K – close to market expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 5.3%. If the upcoming report presents a stronger than expected gain in employment (current projections are at 224K), this could boost the USD and pressure down bullion prices;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has contracted last month but is expected to expand in the next monthly report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the latest update, the CPI climbed to an annual rate of 1.4%; if the annual rate increases, it could signal the Chinese economy is gaining momentum. The current expectations are for the CPI to inch up to 1.5%; in the meantime, the PPI remains negative at 4.8% — not a positive indicator for China’s economic progress.

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