"A resolution to Greek debt negotiations may reduce downside risks, but a weak currency is needed to underpin the recovery...If anything, the risks to monetary policy are for additional QE as the current ECB forecasts are based on a full implementation of the existing program," ANZ argues.
"We therefore continue to see downside risks for the euro against the USD, especially as US growth is firming again and the FOMC seems closer to starting the interest rate normalisation process. We continue to advise selling rallies in EUR/USD," ANZ advises.Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.28 21:25
COT report by Scotiabank: Takeaways On USD, EUR, AUD, & Other Majors (based on efxnews article)
EUR sentiment deteriorated for the first week in four, the net short widening $1.3bn to $13.9bn. Its w/w shift was the result of a paring back in both long and short positions, highlighting a broader trend of withdrawal in traders’ participation as a result of elevated uncertainty and the binary nature of Greek risk.
Investors pared back JPY risk in a manner similar to that observed in EUR, albeit to a greater degree with a $2.7bn decline in gross longs and $2.0bn decline in gross shorts. The pattern suggests that traders await a greater degree of certainty in the face of binary Greek risk.
CAD sentiment has deteriorated for the third week in four,
the net short widening $0.4bn to $1.4bn on the back of a decline in
gross longs—falling to their lowest levels since June 2013.
AUD sentiment is also bearish, albeit modestly so
with a net short at $0.7bn. Investors in appear cautious in adding to
risk in either CAD or AUD, waiting for a breakout of their relatively
narrow ranges.
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.29 07:17
Forex technical analysis: EURUSD gaps. What is the trading strategy? (based on forexlive article)
'Looking at the daily chart below, the price has been able to extend
below the 50% of the move up from the March low at 1.04617 to the high
from May at 1.14658. That level comes in at 1.09638. This remains a key
level to get below - and satay below if the bears are to extend the
range further.'
'Above, there a slew of old swing lows and highs at 1.1032 to 1.1065. The 100 day MA is at 1.1049 (key level). I would expect that sellers will lean against the 1.1032-49 area as a risk defining level in trading today. It would seem to me that the 100 day MA should be a key "line in the sand" for the pair from a technical perspective. We should not trade above this level.'