DON’T KILL THE MESSENGER! GENERALISED FOREX FORECAST FOR 20 – 24 APRIL 2015

It is well known that you do not kill the messenger, even if he brings bad news. And so we, ladies and gentlemen, are those very messengers who generalise and bring to you the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis. We collect all this in a table and try to deduce some sort of averaged indications.

Regarding last week’s forecast, we have to admit that the forecaster proposes, but the market disposes. Just like the old saying goes. And so last week, not only did 30% of the analysts fall through, or simply speaking make inaccurate forecasts, but also... 91% of the indicators! Only 6% of the analysts hit the bull’s eye (if you do not take into account the 58% who simply did not know, wisely refusing to comment at all). As an explanation we can only offer the Easter holidays (what else?), that have taken over all of the world’s leading financial centres.

By looking at the four-hour graph of EUR/USD, the pair’s growth last week can be reliably detected. However if you look at the daily candles, instead of growth you will see a transition of the pair into a sideways trend under a power advantage of the “bears” – during that week, the “bulls” were only able to win back half of the “territory” lost in the battles with the “bears” of 6-10 April.

As for the rest of the pairs, they duly trudged in the wake of EUR/USD, recognising it as the main currency pair of the planet. Thus, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF, following EUR/USD, stuck out their tongues to many analysts and indicators.

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Now, regarding the forecast for the coming week. Praemonitus praemunitus – forewarned is forearmed, as ancient Romans used to say. Today’s table is a clear warning that none of the analysts either know or understand anything. We warn you: in their minds there is a complete mess caused by the “Easter” transition of all four pairs into a sideways trend, which may either continue or finish with a spectacular break-through.

In general, we have armed you as well as we could. Remember: you do not kill the messenger. We do not predict – we just bring you the information.

Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov