We continued to see an underpricing of Catalonia risk. Partially since markets tend to expect the least intrusive outcome and partially the market rumors that, this is merely a domestic issue. Meaning should Spain break up the EU will deal with both parties as separate entities...

The Catalan referendum has brought a very important question in centre stage. Do people have in Europe the self-determination right? It seems that the answer is a big no. Spanish Prime minister declared that there was not vote (i.e. legal) vote in Catalonia...

The US dollar bounced back on Monday, extending gains against almost all of its peers. The uncertainty generated by the Catalan situation has also forced traders to pull out of the single currency...

A significant share of voters in Germany cast their vote in favor of anti-establishment parties in Sunday's federal elections. Global Chief Economist Paul Donovan assesses what rising uncertainty means for investors...

The coming week is typical for a first week of the month; important data releases will clarify the economic conditions of the previous month. On Monday, manufacturing PMIs around the globe will be released, and on Friday US labor market data...

he Helvetic currency has lost two figures since the start of the week going from 1.16CHF to 1.14CHF. Some Swiss economic indicators came in better. The UBS Consumption indicator has risen in August from 1.38 to 1.53...

While the German elections (still a non-issue) continues to dominate Europe conversation, events in Spain are about to heat up. Where this story takes markets, confounds and worries this strategy desk. The Catalonia referendum on Independence is plan to take place on Sunday 1st October...

The sentiment seems to be back to bullish. Gold keeps on declining and is now below $1300. North Korea tensions are still there but markets seems not to worry much on a possible escalation. The dollar has been recently strengthened after weakening since the start of the year...

The primary headline of Angela Merkel winning a historic 4th term is the one that will likely drive market activity...

Next week starts on Sunday, at least for German voters, who are asked to cast their vote in the federal election. Opinion polls point firmly to Angela Merkel retaining the chancellery, to which CIO attaches a 90 percent likelihood. CIO expects the short-term market reaction to be somewhat muted...

Crypto-currencies like Bitcoin fail two key tests of what makes a currency a currency, Global chief economist Paul Donovan argues in the new 'Thought of the Week'. No currency has a natural value. The fact that Bitcoin is just computer code doesn't matter...

The EURCHF pair has reached its highest level since the floor was abandoned in January 2015. The pair has even reached 1.1620 CHF for one euro coin. The bullish move is mostly due because of the anticipation of the asset purchase program being reduced by the ECB in October...

Chinese equities ended lower for the second day in a row after Standard & Poor’s stripped China of AA- rating. The Shanghai Composite fell as much as 0...

During the night, the Bank of Japan has announced its rate remain on hold. It is certain that the Bank of Japan was also closely looking towards the Fed which had its meeting yesterday night...

As widely expected, the FOMC finally triggered the process to reduce the size of its $4.5tn balance sheet...

he big news event on 20 September will be the report of the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee – we believe the central bank will finally announce plans to start selling its massive holding of bonds. This is likely to begin in October. Meanwhile, the Fed is unlikely to move interest rates...

Today has been released the current account of the balance of payments for July which is a good metric to measure any change in regards to the ECB monetary policy. It helps us to measure any potential capital inflow or outflow...

After soaring continuously for the last 10 days in anticipation of this week FOMC meeting, US rates are taking a breather. The monetary policy sensitive 2-year yield rose more than 12bps since September 8th and stabilised slightly below 1.40% on Tuesday morning...

The Central Bank of Russia will decide about its key rate today. There is a significant likelihood that the central bank lower its key rate to 8.5%. In July, the CBR decided to remain on hold, markets expectations for a rate cut are now strong...

he US dollar got a fresh boost yesterday after the release of better-than-expected inflation report. The headline CPI gained 1.9%y/y, against median forecast of 1.8%, up from 1.7% in July. The core gauge also beat expectations of 1.6% by rising 1.7%y/y...