What was expected to have been a bold declaration of independence turned out to be a weak statement. Catalan’s President Puigdemont held back from a total declaration of independence merely stated that he had the right to do so...
The week has been pretty light in term of economic data so far. Today is different as the minutes of the September FOMC meeting are due for release later today...
Silver has strongly bounced back since the start of October and is back above 17$. The precious metal has been very volatile lately. The price of precious metals such as Gold and Silver have been weighed down by the number of “paper” contracts banks have used and abused over the last decade...
We suspect the markets is underestimating the risk involved with the Catalonia independence movements. EURUSD 1 month implied volatility continue to decline despite potential event risk. Markets generally price the most obviously path of events...
After experiencing a solid recovery in the second half of September the US dollar reversed gains, partially at least, and started the week on the back foot. The dollar index traded as low as 93.43 before inching up to 93.54 in late Asian session...
The Australian dollar held steady on Monday morning after tumbling more than 1% against the US dollar last week. The release of disappointing local economic data together with improving US ones, encouraged investors to unwind long AUD position...
Tensions are growing between the United States and Turkey. Last night, both countries have suspended part of their visa services. Indeed, an employee of the US embassy has been arrested on charges of espionage at Istanbul...
Next week CIO's focus will be on inflation. The US, Germany, Sweden, and Norway will publish their latest consumer price data. These are important inputs for the Fed, the ECB, and the Riksbank, which CIO expects will tighten monetary policy over the coming six months...
Inflation may have stayed low in recent years simply because independent central bankers are good at their jobs. Increasingly independent central banks helped lower inflation rates around the world. This is one reason economists have expected low inflation while central banks printed money...
For this old time analyst its nice to see that fundamentals still can drive volatility. Falling letters, cough, and fake P45 form, not only weighted on UK PM May but sent GBPUSD 1 month implied volatility higher at 8.66 and GBPUSD down 2% (4% since the Conservative party conference...
Switzerland’s foreign exchange reserves edged higher for a third successive month in September, despite a clear period of respite for Thomas Jordan and his team. The Swiss National Bank’s stock of foreign currency increased Sfr7.5bn from Sfr716.9bn to Sfr724.4bn, printing a new all-time high...
n case you were hiding under a rock (which might make sense given increasing volatility) today is September US payrolls. Markets are pricing in a solid impact of negative weather with expectations for NFP on the low 60/80k and unemployment 4.5% (risk skewed to the downside...
Benoit Coeuré, a ECB member, will speak on Thursday in a panel in Frankfurt and the accounts of the September ECB meeting will be published today. We believe that the panel’s discussion will be mostly on the size of the potential reduction of the ECB balance sheet starting in January...
Sentiment around the USDJPY remains negative causing the par drift down to 112.35 yesterday. Yet, outlook supports a higher USDJPY. Recent election news has been causing JPY volatility...
Switzerland’s consumer price index rose more than expected during the month of September as it increases 0.7% year-over-year as it reached 100.9 points, beating slightly median expectations of a 0.6% increase. On a month-over-month basis, the headline gauge rose 0.2%, matching expectation...
The yellow metal has reached its 8-week low and is trading around $1275 which nonetheless remains at a strong level if we compare gold prices since the start of the year. Gold price began the year below $1200. The return so far of the precious metal is still very interesting well above 6...
After printing fresh highs against most of its peers yesterday, the greenback finally took a breather on Wednesday and consolidated gains as investors await ADP employment report, Markit PMIs and ISM non-manufacturing. The dollar index edged down 0.10% to 93.50 as the greenback fell 0...
On Wednesday the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), policy meeting will be key to EM pricing. It’s widely expected the RBI to hold rates unchanged however, there is a high probability of a surprise rate cut. India’s economic expansions has slowed significantly causing concern with policy makers...
We continued to see an underpricing of Catalonia risk. Partially since markets tend to expect the least intrusive outcome and partially the market rumors that, this is merely a domestic issue. Meaning should Spain break up the EU will deal with both parties as separate entities...
