Stocks and bond yields have both moved lower since early May as trade tensions have escalated. The equity sell-off has been relatively muted, in part because investor perceptions of Fed and Trump "puts" have supported a buy-the-dip mentality...
The New Zealand dollar was the worst performer amongst the G10 complex following an unexpected slump in Manufacturing PMI. NZD/USD fell as much as 0.63% to 0.6528 after Business Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 versus 53 median forecast and 52.7 in the previous month...
Overall risk sentiment remains weak after reports of attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. US equity markets closed higher due to rally in energy stocks, US yields fell, while oil and gold prices bounced. Classic safe-haven flows...
After rallying to a monthly high on Tuesday, equity markets consolidated on Wednesday. Front month futures on the S&P 500 stabilised above the 2,880 points, down 0.23% on the session, while in the Europe EuroSTOXX 50 futures edged down 0.29% to 3,391 points...
Demonstrations in Hong Kong over the extradition bill might be overshadowed by activity in the local FX market. Hong Kong dollar has risen to its strongest level against the USD in today trading at HIBOR has surged...
We always felt Trump tariff on Mexican goods was a bluff. However, coming off unending negative headlines, the move was plausible enough. If the rumor is true in a closed-door meeting over the Republicans threatened to block Trump Mexico widen ranging tariffs...
The negative market reaction following the escalation of the US-China trade tensions has yet to prompt either side to rush back to the negotiation table, but the US Fed signaled its willingness to cut interest rates if the economy gets hurt...
This week provided the collapse of Fed interest rate expectations and thereof US bond yields. Among others, Fed Bullard and Powell delivered a clear indication of their dovish bias...
Times have become difficult for December-elected President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. US President unexpected threat of implementing tariffs on all exports to the US set for next Monday as well as recent Fitch downgrade and Moody’s negative outlook could push the country into a recession...
The change in tone from the South African Reserve Bank is more than understandable. Although Cyril Ramaphosa emerged victorious from general elections, political, structural and growth uncertainties weigh on the South African economy and ultimately its currency, which is losing steam this week...
The one-two punch of St. Louis Fed Bullard and Chair Powell could have not been clearer. The Fed now has a dovish tilt. Yesterday Powell remarked that given the lack of inflation pressure emulating for the US economy, the Fed has the right and ability to target economic growth...
The decision made by the Reserve Bank of Australian to cut its Cash rate by a quarter-percentage point to historical low 1.25% came as expected. The statement made by RBA Governor Philip Lowe two weeks ago already signaled the intention...
The market has shifted into a defensive position as risks to the downside have increased. US Treasury yields came under pressure pushing 3m – 10Y spreads deeper into the inverted territory. USD was sold as St...
EURCHF dropped sharply to 1.11197 low, breaking below key technical support levels. Trades will have to go back to 2017 to find new levels. With political risk premia rising in Europe, participants are rotating into the closest safe-haven trade...
In September 2018 President Trump put a 10% tax on a long list of imports from China. In May 2019 the tax was raised to 25%. The list of items runs to 194 pages. Reading through it is a slightly weird experience...
Japan has the longest period of growth in post-war history. From June the US will have the longest period of growth in post-war history. Global unemployment is around a forty-year low. This hints that the economic cycle is quite old. Economic growth does not die of old age...
The resumption of trade war headlines has pushed JPY into demand, as optimism over a potential recovery of world economies along 2H 2019 is mitigated...
n the G10 yields are falling. In the U.S, there have been periods were inverted yields curves have not to lead to an economic recession. However, never has a recession transpired without an inverted yield curve...
The trend in USD/CAD has been quite dull since last month Fed meeting. The pair has remained within the range of 1.35 – 1.34 (+0.40% month-to-date) despite acceleration in trade war headlines...
