Oil rises in price: the market doubts the success of negotiations between the US and Iran

Any progress in reopening the Iranian nuclear deal is likely to take months, experts at Goldman Sachs say.

Oil prices are rising on Tuesday (Brent is up about 2% at the time of writing) as the market doubts the success of negotiations between the US and Iran that could revive the nuclear deal that Donald Trump broke in 2018.

On Monday, the intraday decline in oil prices exceeded 5% as investors waited for today's meeting between representatives of Washington, Tehran and other participants in the 2015 nuclear deal. Another bearish factor was the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Europe.

In addition, last week, the participants in the OPEC + deal agreed to increase oil production by 2.15 million barrels per day over the next three months.

“I think that oil prices will remain very volatile in the near future amid negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program and an increase in Covid-19 cases in Europe,” predicts ING chief commodity strategist Warren Patterson. "A breakthrough in the negotiations looks unlikely, but even if it happens, the market will be able to absorb additional Iranian oil, and world reserves will continue to decline."

Any progress in reopening the nuclear deal is likely to take months, say Goldman Sachs experts, who maintain a positive outlook on the oil market. According to them, oil exports from Iran peaked this year at 2.7 million bbl / d, and until 2022 its growth looks unlikely, the banknotes.

Сiti continues to regard Iran as the main joker, which can have a decisive influence on the further dynamics of prices for black gold.