Challenge Odds PRO
- 유틸리티
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Dario Cadeddu
Quantitative Trading Systems Developer focused on risk management, market regime analysis and structured trading workflows for MetaTrader 5. - 버전: 1.0
- 활성화: 10
Challenge Odds PRO: prop challenge pass probability
How likely are you to pass your prop challenge, and what risk per trade gives you the best chance?
Challenge Odds PRO answers both questions with a Monte Carlo simulation built on your own trading results and on the exact rules of your challenge. No price prediction and no signals: only statistics on how your edge behaves under the daily and maximum loss limits. It is a standalone tool and needs no other product to work.
What it shows
- Pass probability, split into attempts lost on the daily limit, lost on the max loss and still running out of time
- The risk per trade that gives the highest pass probability, on a chart of 15 risk levels from 0.10% to 3.00%
- Expectancy per trade, median days to target, expected attempts and expected cost to pass
- Worst trade and worst day in R, with a warning when losses have no fixed stop
Data sources
- Your account history, filtered by magic number, symbol and period. Whole trading days are resampled, so intraday losing streaks stay realistic.
- An HTML report from the Strategy Tester or from your account. Test an Expert Advisor's backtest before you pay for a challenge.
- Manual parameters (win rate, reward:risk, trades per day, costs) when you have no history yet.
Challenge in progress
Set the start date: the indicator tracks balance, traded days and limits, and recalculates the probability from where you are now each time a trade closes.
Rules
Presets for common 2-step and 1-step trailing challenges, or your own profit target, daily loss, max loss, trailing drawdown, minimum and maximum days.
Optional: link with Quantum Risk Manager PRO
If you also use QRM PRO v1.004 or later in the same terminal, the suggested risk can become QRM's base risk, capped by your own limit. QRM uses it only while the indicator is running, the edge is positive and the simulated rules match QRM's. Every QRM protection still applies.
Technical notes
- The calculation runs in short time slices, so the terminal never freezes
- No trading, no DLL, no internet connection; your report file stays on your computer
- Panel in English or Italian
Results are statistical estimates based on past data. They do not guarantee future results or that you will pass a challenge.
