Challenge Odds PRO
- ユーティリティ
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Dario Cadeddu
Quantitative Trading Systems Developer focused on risk management, market regime analysis and structured trading workflows for MetaTrader 5. - バージョン: 1.0
- アクティベーション: 10
What are your odds of passing this prop challenge, and which risk per trade gives you the best chance?
Load your account history or an EA’s Strategy Tester report, so you can evaluate it before paying for a challenge. Pick the rules, and a Monte Carlo simulation shows your odds, how attempts fail, the best of 15 risk levels and the expected cost to pass. No signals, no price forecasts. It works on its own and needs no other product.
Example
MetaTrader’s Moving Average sample EA, backtested on EURUSD H1 (1,053 trades), on a challenge with a 10% target, 5% daily loss and 10% max loss. At 1% risk per trade the estimated pass probability is 41.8%, with 43.4% of attempts lost on the daily limit. At 0.75% it rises to about 48%. The tool also warns that this EA has no fixed stop: its worst loss is 16.8 times the average. These are estimates from a single backtest, not a guarantee.
What it shows
- Pass probability, split into attempts lost on the daily limit, lost on the max loss and still running out of time
- The risk per trade that gives the highest pass probability, on a chart of 15 risk levels from 0.10% to 3.00%
- Expectancy per trade, median days to target, expected attempts and expected cost to pass
- Worst trade and worst day in R, with a warning when losses have no fixed stop
Data sources
- Your account history, filtered by magic number, symbol and period. Whole trading days are resampled, so intraday losing streaks stay realistic.
- An HTML report from the Strategy Tester or from your account. Test an Expert Advisor's backtest before you pay for a challenge.
- Manual parameters (win rate, reward:risk, trades per day, costs) when you have no history yet.
Challenge in progress
Set the start date: the tool tracks balance, traded days and limits, and recalculates the probability from where you are now each time a trade closes.
Rules
Presets for common 2-step and 1-step trailing challenges, or your own profit target, daily loss, max loss, trailing drawdown, minimum and maximum days.
Optional: link with Quantum Risk Manager PRO
If you also use QRM PRO v1.004 or later in the same terminal, the suggested risk can become QRM's base risk, capped by your own limit. QRM uses it only while the indicator is running, the edge is positive and the simulated rules match QRM's. Every QRM protection still applies.
Demo note
The Market demo runs in the Strategy Tester, where there is no account history, so it uses manual parameters. To test a report, place the HTML file in Common\Files and set “Report is in Common\Files” to true.
Technical notes
- The calculation runs in short time slices, so the terminal never freezes
- No trading, no DLL, no internet connection; your report file stays on your computer
- Panel in English or Italian
Results are statistical estimates based on past data. They do not guarantee future results or that you will pass a challenge.
