![💱 [Weekend Outlook] Dollar Market Remains Directionless After NFP Shock – Wait-and-See Mode Continues](https://c.mql5.com/6/978/splash-763798.jpg "💱 [Weekend Outlook] Dollar Market Remains Directionless After NFP Shock – Wait-and-See Mode Continues")
💱 [Weekend Outlook] Dollar Market Remains Directionless After NFP Shock – Wait-and-See Mode Continues
💱 [Weekend Outlook] Dollar Market Remains Directionless After NFP Shock – Wait-and-See Mode Continues
✅ Dollar Weakness Pauses, Market Settles into Calm Equilibrium Ahead of Weekend
The weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report released last Friday had a strong impact on the FX market, causing USD/JPY to plunge as much as 3 yen. Particularly notable were the significant downward revisions to the previous two months’ job numbers, which heightened concerns over a slowdown in the U.S. labor market and reignited speculation of an early Fed rate cut.
This week has largely been a digestion phase of that shock, but no clear trend has emerged. The dollar has been confined to a choppy range mode, with nervous trading driven by short-term profit-taking and stop-hunting activity.
🧭 Lack of Market Drivers Spreads Wait-and-See Sentiment – Focus Shifting to Next Week’s U.S. CPI
Today (August 9), no major U.S. economic data is scheduled for release. The only notable event is St. Louis Fed President Musalem’s participation in a panel discussion, which is unlikely to offer any major directional catalyst for the market.
With next week’s U.S. CPI and PPI releases (August 13–14) looming, investors are generally cautious about initiating fresh positions.
🇨🇦 Today’s Highlight: Canada July Employment Data
| Indicator | Forecast | Previous | Market View |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment Change | +10,000 | +83,100 | A weaker rebound is expected |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.0% | 6.9% | Expected to rise → Potential CAD selling |
→ A weaker-than-expected result could increase the risk of CAD/JPY falling below the 108 yen level.
📈 Early London Session FX Moves (August 8)
| Currency Pair | Movement | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Touched 147.69 → Now 147.57 | U.S. yields flat, no clear direction |
| EUR/USD | Dropped to 1.1635 → Now 1.1642 | Weak bounce, EUR faces heavy resistance |
| GBP/USD | Held above 1.3424 → Now 1.3440 | Avoided key support break, remains firm |
| U.S. 10Y Yield | 4.25% (flat) | Tracking equities, key risk sentiment gauge |
✏️ Summary – Quiet Weekend, Eyes on Next Week’s U.S. Inflation Data
This week has largely been a consolidation period following last Friday’s "dollar weakness shock" triggered by the surprising NFP release, resulting in a directionless market. However, with U.S. CPI, PPI, and Fed officials’ speeches scheduled next week, volatility may return.
Once this round of weekend position adjustments is completed, the market is likely to stay in a nervous range-trading mode while awaiting the next catalyst. A key turning point may be approaching for any early trend reversal.
📋 [FX Strategy Table for the Week of August 12, 2025]
Compiled based on fundamentals and technicals as of the end of the first week of August 2025.
| Currency Pair | Current Price (approx.) | Trend Bias | Key Points & Strategic Overview |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Around 147.50 | Range rebound | Strong support at 146.00. If U.S. CPI beats expectations, a new rally may begin. Break above 148.50 opens room for further upside. |
| EUR/USD | Around 1.1640 | Weak tone | Stop-loss risk below 1.1600. Sell on rallies remains dominant, though U.S. data could trigger short-covering. |
| GBP/USD | Around 1.3440 | Neutral | BOE rate cut outlook and weak UK PMI keep the upside limited. 1.3500 is the pivot; downside risk extends to 1.3350. |
| EUR/JPY | Around 170.50 | Continued rebound | Supported by euro buying and yen selling. Break below 170.00 raises correction risk; above 171.00 profit-taking likely. |
| GBP/JPY | Around 196.30 | Uptrend pausing | Pound is resilient, but yen rebounds may prompt a pullback. Caution below 195.00. |
| AUD/JPY | Around 95.40 | Sell on rallies | RBA rate cut speculation remains a drag. Sensitive to China data. Watch for rebound in the lower 94 yen range. |
| CAD/JPY | Around 108.00 | Downward pressure | If employment data disappoints, risk of dip into 107 yen. US-Canada trade friction also a factor. Rebound depends on oil prices. |
| ZAR/JPY | Around 8.05 | Soft tone | ZAR pressured by geopolitical risks and rate-cut expectations. Below 8.00 is in sight, upside capped near 8.10. |
🔍 Strategic Supplement Notes:
-
Key Theme: U.S. CPI and PPI next week will be decisive. If inflation concerns resurface, expect a shift back toward dollar buying and yen selling.
-
USD/JPY at a crossroads: A weak CPI could lead to a dip below 146.00, while strong data may lift it toward 150.00.
-
Risk-Off Triggers: Geopolitical tensions involving the Middle East, Russia, and China continue to be key catalysts for yen buying.
